On February 9, against a backdrop of volatile global energy markets, the latest developments in the US upstream exploration sector presented complex signals. Market analysis indicates that although crude oil prices currently face multiple uncertainties, recent industry data shows the total number of active US oil and gas drilling rigs unexpectedly increased by five this week, bringing the total count back to 551. While this modest expansion still leaves a gap of 35 rigs compared to the same period last year, it suggests that some drillers are attempting to hedge against future supply risks by maintaining capital expenditures even during a period of price adjustments.

Looking ahead to 2026, structural contradictions in energy supply and demand remain prominent. Analysis suggests the slight uptick in rig count contrasts sharply with the decline in production, revealing that upstream development is being squeezed by both efficiency issues and cost pressures. Relevant data shows that in the week ending January 30, US crude oil production fell significantly by 481,000 barrels per day, with average output dropping to 13.215 million barrels per day. This figure is nearly 647,000 barrels per day lower than the historical peak, reflecting that even as drilling activity picks up, slowing completion rates have become a core bottleneck restricting production capacity. This is underscored by the frac spread count falling to 148, a five-year low.

Regionally, the rig count in the core energy area, the Permian Basin, decreased slightly to 241. This indicates that even the most cost-advantaged production areas are acting more cautiously when facing WTI prices around $64 per barrel. Analysis notes that although Brent crude oil rebounded to above $68.72 before the data release, with a daily increase of 1.73%, the weekly weakness in crude prices continues to pressure producers to optimize their inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells.

Summarizing the overall trend, the US energy industry is seeking a balance amidst uncertain price conditions. Although the natural gas rig count has increased by 30 compared to last year, showing the ongoing drive of the clean energy transition, capital efficiency in the crude oil sector remains constrained by weak fracking activity. Analysis concludes that in the interplay between ongoing supply contraction and cyclical price rebounds, investors should closely monitor changes to the 13.215 million barrels per day production baseline. They should also watch whether the frac fleet count can recover from its five-year low in the coming weeks to assess the sustainability of oil price fluctuations within the $60 to $70 range.