National Bureau of Statistics: October CPI Turns Positive, PPI Decline Narrows

Deep News
Nov 09

In October, as domestic demand-boosting policies took effect and the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays stimulated consumption, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) edged up 0.1% month-on-month, shifting from flat growth in September—the first monthly increase this year. Year-on-year, PPI fell 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points for the third straight month, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and international commodity price fluctuations.

**CPI: Month-on-Month Growth Expands, Year-on-Year Turns Positive** CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and slightly above seasonal trends. Service prices rebounded from a 0.3% decline in September to a 0.2% increase, contributing 0.07 percentage points to the CPI. Holiday travel demand boosted prices for hotel stays (+8.6%), airfares (+4.5%), and tourism (+2.5%), while medical services rose 0.5%.

Food prices climbed 0.3%, defying the seasonal trend of a 0.1% decline, with vegetables, lamb, fruit, seafood, and beef rising between 0.5% and 4.3%. Industrial consumer goods prices stabilized or rose, with energy dropping 0.4% but non-energy industrial goods up 0.3%. Gold jewelry surged 10.2% due to higher global prices.

Year-on-year, CPI shifted from a 0.3% drop in September to a 0.2% gain. Food and energy prices remained low but saw narrower declines: food fell 2.9% (1.5 percentage points less than September), while energy dropped 2.4% (gasoline down 5.5%). Core CPI rose 1.2%—the highest since March 2024—with services up 0.8% and non-energy industrial goods up 2.0%. Gold and platinum jewelry soared 50.3% and 46.1%, respectively.

**PPI: Month-on-Month Turns Positive, Year-on-Year Decline Narrows** PPI’s 0.1% monthly increase reflected improving supply-demand conditions in coal mining (+1.6%), coal processing (+0.8%), and solar equipment (+0.6%). Cement, computers, lithium batteries, and semiconductors also rebounded. Nonferrous metals rose on global price hikes (mining +5.3%, smelting +2.4%), while oil-related sectors dipped due to lower crude prices.

Year-on-year, PPI’s 2.1% decline narrowed further, aided by capacity adjustments in coal (-1.2 percentage points), solar equipment, batteries, and autos. Advanced manufacturing and consumption policies lifted prices for nonferrous metals (+6.8%), electronics (+2.3%), and sports equipment (+18.4%).

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