On June 29, last Friday's early session, we suggested shorting above 4020 to capture a pullback for exit. Subsequently, we emphasized the 4050 level as a key watershed. Following a breakout above this level, we advised buying on dips to target an extension above 4080, with a plan to then initiate shorts below the 4100 psychological barrier. This strategy was clearly outlined. The gold price indeed retreated to 3983, found support, rebounded, and broke above the 4050 level, reaching a high near 4095 dollars before pulling back. The overall gold price movement aligned with our expectations.

Key Focus for Today's Session

Firstly, the critical $4100 whole number level. Last Friday's price rebound was precisely capped at this level, failing to break through. Whether the price can establish itself above $4100 today is crucial. A successful breakout would open the door for further upside, while a failure would likely lead to continued choppy, range-bound action.

Secondly, attention should be on the 4045/50 zone. This morning's pullback low also resides in this area, which coincides with the previous resistance level broken on Friday. It has now transformed into a key support area. If the price can hold firmly above this zone, it would indicate sustained buying interest, suggesting potential for further upward movement. Conversely, if price action weakens and breaks below the 4045/50 support, it signals that gold is likely to probe lower levels.

Finally, as consistently highlighted, the European session's price action is pivotal. We will wait for the intraday trend to establish a clear direction. After a decisive break, whether above 4100 or below 4045, we will align our evening trading strategy with the dominant trend. The plan is to observe the price's position and then formulate a rational approach accordingly.

Trading Strategy for the Day

For the Asian/European session, we favor selling on rallies below last Friday's high of 4095, with a stop-loss placed on a break above this level. The target is a 30-40 dollar decline. Should the price break below 4045, we would look to sell on any subsequent bounce, also targeting a 30-40 dollar drop. If the price declines directly, using 4000 as a stop-loss, a short-term long position could be considered upon signs of stabilization and a bounce.