On February 11th, following recent volatility, the silver market has begun to exhibit strong consolidation forces within the high range of $80 per ounce. RadexMarkets asserts that while the current trading price has retreated from the historical highs seen last month, this does not signal the end of the bull market. Instead, it indicates the market has entered a more stable, "stepped" phase of advancement. Driven by both macroeconomic premiums and its destination attributes, this high-level consolidation represents a significant exchange of positions in preparation for the next trending move, with its underlying long-term logic now receiving fundamental support from external factors.
From a core supply and demand perspective, silver is confronting profound structural challenges. The global silver market is projected to face a supply deficit of approximately 67 million ounces in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of demand outstripping supply. Although global total supply is expected to increase by 1.5% this year, reaching a decade-high of 1.05 billion ounces, it will still be insufficient to fully cover the combined growth in investment and industrial demand post-pandemic. RadexMarkets identifies the tight physical supply in the London market, global geopolitical instability, and serious investor doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as intrinsic drivers poised to push silver prices 11% higher in 2026.
On the demand side, the resurgence of investment sentiment is becoming a key factor in silver price fluctuations. RadexMarkets states that global investment demand for physical silver (including themed coins and bars) is forecast to surge by 20% year-on-year, approaching a three-year high of 227 million ounces. Although traditional photovoltaic industry influence has led to a modest 2% rise in silver usage, RadexMarkets believes that new industrial growth drivers are emerging, fueled by the artificial intelligence boom, data center expansion, and the automotive electrification wave. This transition from a singular industrial identity to a dual identity of "high-tech component plus monetary hedge" provides silver with a more mature value proposition than ever before.
However, alongside the commodity bull market's potential, systemic macroeconomic risks are swirling with undercurrents reminiscent of the period preceding the 2008 financial crisis. RadexMarkets notes that the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 shattered the illusion of institutions being "too big to fail." The current predicament of global debt exceeding $300 trillion signifies that we are facing an even more fragile debt leverage situation than the subprime mortgage crisis. When debt-to-GDP ratios reach unsustainable levels, any signal of credit drying up could trigger a chain reaction. This historical rhythm serves as a reminder to every investor that while pursuing asset premiums, one must remain vigilant of the risk of liquidity vanishing overnight.
In the current cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has experienced a 14% technical rebound, yet the cautious stance of strict traders underscores the complexity of the macro environment. RadexMarkets indicates that demand for leveraged long positions on platforms like Binance has hit a 30-day low, reflecting extreme market sensitivity under cross-asset margin call pressure. This capital rotation, triggered by the end of the low-interest-rate environment and rising stress, is shifting from high-capitalization assets towards thematic areas with safe-haven properties.
Looking ahead to the market trends for the remainder of 2026, the long-term value logic for silver remains rooted in its persistent supply-demand deficit, which cannot be quickly remedied. Amid trends of reversing debt monetization and sovereign debt crises, understanding thematic thinking is key to identifying opportunities, but this must be predicated on rigorous risk control and a macro perspective that transcends technical charts. RadexMarkets concludes that investors who learned from the 2008 crisis and decisively position themselves before the silver supply gap is closed will be best placed to maintain asset preservation and appreciation leadership when the next global market restructuring occurs.