1. On October 17 (Friday) before the market opens, US stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures turned from a decline to an increase of 0.18%, while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.04% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.24%. 2. Currently, Germany's DAX index is down 1.48%, the UK's FTSE 100 is down 1.05%, France's CAC 40 is down 0.05%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.66%. 3. As of now, WTI crude oil has risen 0.21% to $57.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.16% to $61.16 per barrel. Market news warns of a $5 trillion "credit powder keg," as Goldman Sachs President cautions that defaults could trigger a systemic crisis. Goldman Sachs President John Waldron stated that the credit market has seen explosive growth over the past decade, and if conditions worsen, the resulting chain reactions will not be optimistic. Waldron pointed out that the total borrowings in high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, and private credit have reached about $5 trillion, with private credit being the primary driver of growth. Over the past decade, lending has surged, primarily in the private credit sector—though there has been some growth within the banking system, most of it comes from private credit. In recent weeks, the credit market faced three alleged fraud incidents, heightening concerns about potential deep-seated risks. On Thursday, Zion Bank and Western Alliance Bank reported that loans made to funds investing in distressed commercial mortgages were defrauded, making them victims themselves. Liquidity alarms have been sounded! US bank reserves fell below $3 trillion again, and the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) may end in the coming months. Reserves in the US banking system, a critical consideration for the Fed's decision to continue shrinking its balance sheet, have fallen below $3 trillion once more. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that QT might stop in the coming months. According to data released by the Fed on Thursday, bank reserves declined by approximately $45.7 billion to $2.99 trillion in the week ending October 15. This decrease nearly offsets the previous week’s increase of $54.3 billion. This drop in reserves occurs against the backdrop of the US Treasury ramping up its debt issuance after the debt ceiling was raised in July, aimed at rebuilding cash balances. This operation drains liquidity from other liability items in the Fed's accounts, such as overnight reverse repos and bank reserves. Profit is king, AI leads the way! The US earnings season kicks off with Wall Street increasingly confident in the "long-term bull market narrative." Amid growing concerns about global macroeconomic instability driven by factors such as US government shutdowns and developed country debt crises, determining the dominance of massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) may mask underlying deep-seated issues in the US economy. Wall Street analysts are becoming more optimistic about US corporate profit forecasts, alongside a continued momentum of exceeding earnings expectations this year, which may sustain the bullish trend of rising US stock markets. The performance reporting season is critical for US stocks, and based on the latest expectations from Wall Street and disclosed earnings, it appears that the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants and leaders in the AI computing supply chain, like Broadcom and AMD, are likely to show robust performance, propelling continued new highs in US stocks. The "digital gold" loses luster! Bitcoin plummets again, losing its "safe haven" status, with a market value evaporating by hundreds of billions in a week. Following a week-long drop and erasing thousands of billions in market value, Bitcoin has once again failed to fulfill its promise as a safe-haven asset. This cryptocurrency, often hailed as a tool for hedging market turbulence—the "digital gold" of the blockchain era—continued its decline in London trading on Friday morning. Its price dropped nearly 3% to below $105,000. The second-largest token, Ethereum, fell below $3,800, retreating over 20% from its August peak. Meanwhile, Binance-associated BNB tokens plummeted by 11% on Friday. From October 10 to 11, due to technical difficulties and price discrepancies faced by users, this largest global cryptocurrency exchange was identified by analysts as a major driver of record liquidations. Following the crash, Binance has offered nearly $600 million in compensation to users and businesses. Individual stock news: North American demand rebounds + acquisition dividend leads Schlumberger (SLB.US) to Q3 profits exceeding expectations. Due to stable demand in the North American market and contributions from the recent acquisition of ChampionX, which effectively offset weakness in oilfield operations in other regions, the world's largest oilfield services company, Schlumberger, reported third-quarter profits that exceeded expectations. In Q3, international operations, which account for approximately 80% of Schlumberger's total revenue, saw a 7% decline to $6.92 billion, while North American revenues grew by 14% to $1.93 billion. For the quarter ended September 30, the company adjusted earnings per share reached $0.69, surpassing the analysts' average estimate of $0.66. Total revenue decreased by 2.5% year-on-year from $9.159 billion to $8.928 billion, although it grew 4% quarter-over-quarter. Excluding the impact of this acquisition, Schlumberger's global revenue in Q3 fell by 9% year-on-year. Strong demand for the new Platinum Card! American Express (AXP.US) Q3 results surpassed expectations. American Express Q3 revenue reached $18.43 billion, up 10.8% year-on-year; non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.14, exceeding market expectations. The premium credit card company reported $421 billion in billing volume during Q3. Analysts had previously estimated that this New York-headquartered company's total billing volume would reach $415.2 billion. The company's CEO, Steve Squeri, noted in a statement on Friday that the initial demand for the new Platinum Card exceeded the company's expectations, with new Platinum Card account acquisition doubling compared to pre-update levels. The company has also raised the lower end of its full-year revenue guidance, now expecting revenue growth of 9% to 10%, compared to market expectations of 8.95%; earnings per share are projected to be between $15.20 and $15.50, with market expectations set at $15.34. Increased customer transaction volume boosts performance: Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) Q3 revenue and EPS exceed expectations. Interactive Brokers reported Q3 net revenue of $1.66 billion, a 21% increase from last year's $1.365 billion, surpassing market expectations of $1.505 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, higher than last year's $0.40 and exceeding the market estimate of $0.54. Due to increased customer trading volumes, commission income rose 23% year on year to $537 million during the quarter. Data showed that customer trading volumes for stocks and options increased by 67% and 27%, respectively, while futures trading volumes dropped by 7%. Net interest income grew 21% year on year to $967 million, driven by increased securities lending activities, as average client margin loans and client credit balances increased. Furthermore, Interactive Brokers' board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share. Oracle (ORCL.US) reveals AI "trump card": $60 billion project with a gross margin of up to 35%, FY2030 revenue target of $225 billion. Oracle unveiled the gross margin expectations for its large AI infrastructure project, easing some of Wall Street's concerns regarding the profitability of this critical new business unit. During an investor presentation at its annual conference in Las Vegas, Oracle indicated that for an AI workload infrastructure project (such as a data center) expected to generate a total of $60 billion in revenue over six years, the gross margin would reach 35%. Gross margin refers to the percentage of remaining revenue after deducting the costs of producing goods and services. Co-CEO Clay Magouyrk stated during a conversation with analysts that the gross margin level in this example "is meaningful even for the largest clients." Breaking the deadlock of high AI infrastructure costs! Meta (META.US) secures nearly $30 billion in data center financing, setting a new precedent for tech giants with its SPV off-balance-sheet structure. Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is poised to finalize a nearly $30 billion financing deal for its data center campus located in rural Louisiana, marking the final steps for the largest private capital transaction in history. According to informed sources, Blue Owl Capital and Meta will jointly own the ownership of the "Hyperion" data center campus in Louisiana, where this tech giant retains only a 20% share. To support the campus's construction, Morgan Stanley led the establishment of a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) and arranged over $27 billion in debt financing and about $2.5 billion in equity financing—this structure for large transactions is becoming increasingly common. Important economic data and event previews: At 20:30 Beijing time: US September building permits month-on-month initial value (%), US September import price index month-on-month (%), US September new housing starts annualized month-on-month (%). At 21:15 Beijing time: US September industrial production month-on-month (%). The next day at 01:00 Beijing time: US total number of active drilling rigs as of the week ending October 17. The next day at 04:00 Beijing time: US net purchases of long-term securities by foreign investors in August (in hundreds of millions). The next day at 00:15 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks. The next day at 03:30 Beijing time: CFTC releases the weekly position report.