Elon Musk made a bold declaration during a recent internal SpaceX video conference, stating that the company's artificial intelligence revenue will officially overtake the combined earnings from rocket launches and Starlink broadband services by September.

The roughly 30-minute all-hands meeting video was released on the X platform yesterday. Musk's statement was direct: "Our AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX revenue by September. It's not a possibility, it's a certainty."

AI Positioned as SpaceX's Core Growth Engine

During the meeting, Musk explicitly called AI "an extremely important part of SpaceX's future" and set a specific target: achieving 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of next year. He estimated the value of this computing power at approximately $30 to $50 per watt, suggesting that by 2028, the AI business alone could generate annual revenue between $300 billion and $500 billion. Musk described these figures as "big numbers."

Additionally, Musk revealed plans to train the company's proprietary AI model, Grok, using all internal SpaceX information, including employee work activities. "In a way, it will be training on you," he said.

Current Status: Rapid AI Growth, But Not Yet Dominant

According to SpaceX's recently released second-quarter financial report, the AI business is growing rapidly but has not yet reached the top position. The company posted total quarterly revenue of $7.81 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase. Of this, AI contributed approximately $2.56 billion, while the combined Starlink connectivity and rocket businesses accounted for $5.25 billion.

This means that for AI to surpass the other business segments combined by September, it would need to more than double its current revenue, assuming the other segments do not see significant growth. However, this is not entirely impossible in the short term. SpaceX has already signed large-scale computing contracts with Anthropic and Google's parent company Alphabet. Based on these agreements, Goldman Sachs projects that full-year AI revenue could reach approximately $15.6 billion in 2026.

Real-World Obstacles to the 10 GW Target

Musk's target of "10 gigawatts by the end of next year" faces significant implementation challenges.

The first major hurdle is electricity. The methane gas turbines currently used by SpaceX for the Colossus 1 and 2 data centers have already faced strong opposition, and the power supply itself represents a major bottleneck.

The second challenge is chips. Based on rough estimates, the number of chips required for 10 gigawatts would account for a substantial portion of Nvidia's total production capacity during the same period, raising questions about supply availability.

Furthermore, capital expenditure pressures are immense. SpaceX's AI-related spending in the last quarter already exceeded $25 billion. Adding more than 8 gigawatts of computing capacity over the next approximately 18 months would require significantly more capital. There could be a noticeable gap between expenditure and revenue before 2027, potentially forcing the company to seek external financing.

More notably, the binding nature of these large contracts is currently quite weak. Any party can exit the agreement with just 90 days' notice. If a client terminates early, SpaceX would face the risk of losing corresponding revenue after having already invested substantial capital.

How Should Investors View This?

The direction Musk has outlined is not without merit, as AI demand is indeed real. However, it is necessary to maintain a cautious approach regarding the timeline and ultimate scale. To achieve such aggressive expansion in the short term, SpaceX must overcome bottlenecks in electricity and chips, bear enormous capital pressure, and navigate the uncertainty of contract stability.

AI is rapidly becoming a key variable in SpaceX's business structure, but whether it can "take over" the company's revenue at the pace Musk has promised depends on execution and the ability to effectively break through external constraints. When considering this narrative, investors should place equal importance on growth rates, capital expenditure, and contract quality.