On March 11, COMEX gold experienced a slight decline with limited volatility, closing at $5,183.9 per ounce, down by 1.11%. The overnight session for domestic SHFE gold opened lower and fluctuated, ending at 1,151.48 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.37%.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, matching both expectations and the previous reading. The core CPI growth rate remained at 2.5%, the slowest pace in nearly five years. While inflation data moderated as anticipated, concerns persisted due to rising energy costs stemming from U.S.-Iran tensions, failing to ease market worries. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in March, though uncertainty has emerged regarding the number of rate cuts expected within the year. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board by 5 to 8 basis points on the day, with long-term yields showing particular weakness. The 30-year yield has climbed approximately 10 basis points over the week, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.8 basis points, accumulating a rise of over 30 basis points since the Iran conflict began. Under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar, spot gold prices fell to a new weekly low.
On the geopolitical front, former President Trump stated that military action against Iran is "coming to an end," while Iran warned that the U.S. could become entangled in a prolonged war of attrition. Iran has proposed three essential conditions to end the conflict, including demands for U.S. and Israeli compensation. The U.S.-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, and geopolitical volatility is expected to be a key trading factor in the near term. Recent gold price movements have shown a negative correlation with crude oil and the U.S. dollar, while exhibiting a positive correlation with U.S. equities. This suggests underlying concerns about liquidity in the gold market. Given the ongoing geopolitical instability, short-term trading strategies should prioritize timing over directional bias.