Abstract
Dutch Bros Inc. will report quarterly results on February 12, 2026, Post Market; expectations point to accelerating top-line growth alongside expanding earnings per share, with investor attention centered on whether momentum in company-operated shops sustains margins and supports full-year targets.Market Forecast
Consensus expectations for Dutch Bros Inc. this quarter indicate revenue of $424.48 million, EBIT of $25.36 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.10; year-over-year growth rates implied by forecasts are 33.57% for revenue, 211.95% for EBIT, and 363.77% for adjusted EPS, reflecting broad-based scaling effects and ongoing expansion. The company’s main business is company-operated shops, which are expected to continue driving the majority of revenue through unit growth and transaction-focused initiatives, with operational leverage a key watch item for margin progression. The most promising segment remains company-operated shops, contributing $392.83 million last quarter, while total revenue advanced 25.24% year over year; the smaller franchise and other segment contributed $30.75 million, presenting an incremental earnings tailwind through royalty and ancillary streams.Last Quarter Review
Dutch Bros Inc. reported last quarter revenue of $423.58 million, a gross profit margin of 25.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $17.50 million, a net profit margin of 4.13%, and adjusted EPS of $0.19, with year-over-year growth of 25.24% in revenue and 18.75% in adjusted EPS. A notable development was the quarter-on-quarter change in GAAP net profit at -31.72%, underscoring the sensitivity of earnings to cost timing, shop ramp dynamics, and seasonal mix. The main business highlight was that company-operated shops generated $392.83 million, accounting for 92.74% of total revenue, while franchise and other contributed $30.75 million, equal to 7.26% of revenue; total revenue expanded 25.24% year over year, reflecting scalability across the footprint.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business: Company-Operated Shops
Company-operated shops form the backbone of Dutch Bros Inc.’s revenue model and are the primary driver of near-term performance. With $392.83 million in last quarter revenue and a 92.74% contribution to total, this segment’s throughput, pricing discipline, and transaction volume will shape both top-line and margin outcomes. The forecasted revenue growth of 33.57% year over year implies sustained expansion in shop count and operational efficiency, but the translation from sales to earnings will be closely linked to cost-of-goods sold and store-level labor management. The last quarter gross profit margin of 25.21% sets a reference point; if shop-level contribution continues to improve with scale, additional leverage could emerge in operating income despite normal growth-related expenses. Investors will monitor whether throughput initiatives and menu innovation maintain average check while protecting transaction flow, as this balance is essential for maintaining the net profit margin near or above the last quarter’s 4.13% benchmark.Most Promising Business: Franchise and Other
Franchise and other, at $30.75 million last quarter and 7.26% of total revenue, offers incremental upside through royalties, licensing, and adjacent services that carry potential margin accretion. Although smaller than company-operated shops, this segment can augment profitability by contributing revenue with lower capital intensity relative to new shop openings. A focused expansion strategy, combined with process and system enhancements, could enable steady revenue additions without materially increasing operating complexity, supporting EBIT growth. With EBIT forecast at $25.36 million and year-over-year growth projected at 211.95%, contribution from ancillary revenue streams may help smooth the variability of GAAP net profit and amplify the earnings-per-share trend. The segment’s outlook hinges on efficient contract, compliance, and operational oversight, enabling stable revenue capture while avoiding disproportionate overhead or support costs.Stock Price Drivers: Margins, EPS Trajectory, and Execution Consistency
Stock performance around the print will be highly sensitive to margin signals and the EPS trajectory implied by management’s commentary and reported figures. The gap between rapidly growing revenue and the last quarter’s net profit margin of 4.13% highlights the importance of cost control, especially across labor allocation, input costs, and promotion mechanics; scaling effects must translate into operating leverage to sustain EPS momentum. With adjusted EPS expected at $0.10 and forecast year-over-year growth of 363.77%, the key investor question is whether this shift is supported by persistent, repeatable unit economics rather than one-off benefits; clarity on store-level contribution, pre-opening expense cadence, and corporate overhead discipline will be pivotal. Execution consistency—delivering on throughput, transaction growth, and pricing without compressing the gross profit margin from the 25.21% last quarter level—will likely dictate sentiment, as even modest improvements in productivity and cost structure could compound meaningfully across the operating base.Company-Operated Shops: Revenue Momentum and Margin Control
Revenue momentum within company-operated shops remains central to the quarter’s outlook. The translation of store count growth into same-shop transaction gains, average check stability, and repeat customer behavior can collectively underpin the revenue estimate of $424.48 million. As store openings ramp, pre-opening expenses and early-stage inefficiencies can temporarily weigh on net profit; however, rapid normalization of labor schedules, supply chain routing, and training effectiveness tends to align margins with matured stores over time. Market observers will look for indications that the gross profit margin can hold near 25.21% or lift modestly, which, combined with better overhead absorption, would support EBIT of $25.36 million and the heightened earnings-per-share profile. Execution on staffing and scheduling, promotion timing, and supply chain agility can allow incremental throughput gains to fall efficiently to contribution, reducing variability and reinforcing the earnings cadence.Franchise and Other: Incremental Earnings Leverage
The franchise and other segment provides a supplementary earnings lever by creating revenue streams that can scale without proportional increases in fixed cost. Even at $30.75 million last quarter, this component can help stabilize quarterly results through recurring royalties and ancillary offerings, which may come with favorable cost characteristics. For a footprint that is expanding through direct operations, offsetting support functions with royalty revenue can lighten the lift on corporate overhead and improve EBIT conversion. Consistency in contract terms, growth in participating units, and well-managed partner support will help to minimize revenue attrition or variability, thereby reinforcing earnings predictability in quarters with heavier opening activity. If this segment’s incremental contributions align with operational improvements in company-operated shops, the combined effect may support sustained net margin progress over time.Profitability Framework: Gross Margin and Net Margin Reconciliation
A central focus this quarter is whether Dutch Bros Inc. can reconcile rapid revenue growth with margin discipline. The last quarter showcased a 25.21% gross profit margin and a 4.13% net profit margin, indicating room for operating leverage as scale deepens. While inputs such as commodities and packaging fluctuate, meticulous procurement and menu engineering can preserve the gross margin line even as promotional intensity ebbs and flows. On the net margin side, aligning growth spending with realized throughput gains is essential; the quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of -31.72% highlights how timing and ramp can affect GAAP results. For the current quarter, investors will expect management’s commentary to clarify the path between high-teens to low-twenties contribution rates in shops and the eventual EPS outcome, which is guided by a $0.10 estimate and a forecasted 363.77% year-over-year increase.Revenue Mix and Operating Leverage Dynamics
The revenue mix heavily favors company-operated shops, creating a high-visibility driver for growth while simultaneously demanding operational excellence to capture margin. As transactions and average check interact, the cumulative impact on shop contribution can yield outsized performance in EBIT if overhead growth is contained. The $25.36 million EBIT forecast implies improved leverage, contingent on stable gross profit mechanics and disciplined expansion. Investors will parse whether incremental revenue above the $423.58 million baseline can be captured without escalating cost pressures, thereby confirming the sustainability of earnings scaling. If mix remains consistent—company-operated shops at roughly 92.74% and franchise and other at 7.26%—the model benefits from predictable drivers even as new units enter their ramp phase.Adjusted EPS: Validating the Step-Change
Adjusted EPS is the focal validation metric of this growth cycle. The last quarter’s $0.19 with an 18.75% year-over-year increase set a durable base, and the current forecast of $0.10 with 363.77% year-over-year growth suggests significant lift relative to the year-ago comparable. The market will test the sustainability of this step-change: whether in-store efficiency, promotional strategy, and labor alignment can deliver repeatable gains in earnings power. The reconciliation between adjusted EPS and GAAP net profit will be carefully examined, especially given the last quarter’s net profit margin of 4.13% and the quarter-on-quarter change of -31.72% in net profit. Commentary regarding pre-opening expense cadence, the maturity curve of newer locations, and corporate-level cost initiatives will be critical in substantiating the projected EPS trajectory.Execution Priorities and Risk Balancing
Execution priorities tie directly to throughput, cost management, and balanced growth spending. Ensuring that new locations achieve productivity targets quickly can compress the time between opening and contribution parity, supporting both margins and earnings. Cost vigilance—across labor, inputs, and logistics—needs to be synchronized with promotional activity to avoid margin dilution while maintaining transaction momentum. The degree to which Dutch Bros Inc. demonstrates consistent operations across a growing footprint will influence investor confidence in both the revenue estimate of $424.48 million and the implied EBIT of $25.36 million. A coherent framework for aligning growth investments with realized returns can improve visibility, reinforcing the stability of adjusted EPS outcomes even during heavier opening periods.Analyst Opinions
Bullish views are in the majority at 100.00% versus 0.00% bearish within the reviewed period. KeyBanc initiated coverage on Dutch Bros Inc. with a Buy rating and a price target of $77.00, reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to translate unit growth and transaction initiatives into accelerating earnings. The positive stance aligns with the forecast profile of $424.48 million in revenue, $25.36 million in EBIT, and adjusted EPS of $0.10, all supported by strong year-over-year growth rates of 33.57%, 211.95%, and 363.77%, respectively. The endorsement emphasizes the scalability of the operating model and the potential for margin leverage as store-level economics improve with maturity, validating the premise that near-term growth can be captured efficiently.The bullish perspective underscores that the company-operated shops segment, at $392.83 million last quarter and 92.74% of revenue, provides a clear route for revenue visibility while enabling operational efficiencies that may lift EBIT conversion. Analysts viewing the name positively are seeking confirmation that gross profit margins can remain near 25.21% or edge higher through cost management and menu engineering, translating into steadier net margin outcomes than the last quarter’s 4.13%. The Buy rating highlights confidence in management’s growth discipline and the ability to reconcile the rapid top-line expansion with margin control, reducing the volatility seen in quarter-on-quarter GAAP net profit moves such as the recent -31.72%.
Supportive institutional views frequently focus on the interplay of throughput growth and cost leverage. As adjusted EPS shifts higher against the year-ago comparable, the degree to which corporate overhead and pre-opening expenses align with unit productivity will determine durability. The $77.00 target conveys expectations that earnings growth trajectories can be maintained through consistent execution rather than one-off drivers. With consensus revenue at $424.48 million and robust year-over-year indicators across key metrics, the majority opinion is that Dutch Bros Inc. is positioned to demonstrate effective scaling during the current quarter, leading to validation of top-line estimates and reinforcement of the earnings framework. Investors will look for measurable evidence in the reported results and commentary that supports operating leverage, provides clarity on expense timing, and sustains momentum in company-operated shops, thereby ratifying the bullish outlook.