Abstract

Rayonier will release its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes expected revenue, margins, net profit, adjusted EPS, business mix, and prevailing institutional views since January 01, 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of USD 110.06 million, an EBIT estimate of USD 16.81 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.12, implying year-over-year declines of 48.57% for revenue, 59.82% for EBIT, and 38.36% for adjusted EPS. Margin expectations are subdued, with no explicit consensus gross margin provided; the yardsticks are last quarter’s gross profit margin of 36.87% and net profit margin of 24.33% that set a challenging comparison base. In the company’s main businesses, Real Estate, Southern Timber, and Pacific Northwest Timber remain the core mix, with Real Estate carrying the primary revenue weight and driving the near-term outlook. The most promising segment is Real Estate with USD 90.76 million in last quarter revenue; year-over-year growth data for this segment is not disclosed in the available forecast.

Last Quarter Review

Rayonier’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 177.50 million, a gross profit margin of 36.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 43.19 million, a net profit margin of 24.33%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.32, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 166.67%. A key highlight was a material outperformance versus prior estimates, with EBIT at USD 48.80 million compared to the USD 35.48 million estimate, and adjusted EPS at USD 0.32 versus the USD 0.22 estimate, signaling operational strength despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 8.97%. Segment-wise, Real Estate generated USD 90.76 million, Southern Timber USD 66.83 million, and Pacific Northwest Timber USD 19.94 million; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed in the last quarter’s dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Real Estate and Timber Portfolio

Real Estate is positioned to be the primary revenue contributor in the current quarter, supported by ongoing closings from previously contracted land sales and habitat conservation transactions that typically cluster in certain fiscal periods. The segment’s revenue can be lumpy due to timing of closings, which helps explain the substantial sequential drawdown implied by the current quarter revenue estimate of USD 110.06 million relative to last quarter’s USD 177.50 million. In timber operations, Southern Timber provides stable stumpage and delivered log sales influenced by regional pulpwood demand, while Pacific Northwest Timber is more levered to export log pricing and domestic sawlog demand. The softer topline forecast indicates lower planned real estate closings and moderated harvest volumes or pricing, which could compress operating leverage. As a result, management’s execution around contract timing and harvest mix, alongside any pricing resilience in lumber and pulp markets, will be central to maintaining margins near the prior gross margin benchmark of 36.87%.

Most Promising Business: Real Estate Transactions

The most promising near-term growth driver remains Real Estate because transactional revenue can move the consolidated results materially in a single quarter. Last quarter’s USD 90.76 million in Real Estate revenue underscores how closings on development parcels, rural recreational tracts, and mitigation credits can more than offset softness in timber pricing. This quarter’s lower consolidated revenue estimate suggests fewer large land deals are scheduled, but the pipeline’s potential remains intact and may produce upside if additional closings are advanced. Investors should watch disclosures on contracted sales backlog and closing schedules; a modest shift of one or two sizable transactions could lift revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS above the current forecasts. Pricing conditions for entitled land and higher-and-better-use parcels typically remain firm in supply-constrained markets, and that pricing power can protect gross margin even when volumes vary.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three factors are likely to drive Rayonier’s stock performance around the print. The first is the composition and timing of Real Estate closings, which can swing consolidated revenue and EBIT by tens of millions of dollars in a single quarter, especially when high-margin transactions dominate the mix. The second is timber price realization, where Southern Timber’s exposure to pulpwood and sawlogs, and Pacific Northwest Timber’s sensitivity to export and domestic sawlog demand, could influence delivered log margins; any stabilization or improvement in benchmark indices would be supportive for EBIT. The third is cost discipline and harvest mix, including road maintenance and reforestation timing; operating efficiency can cushion margin pressure when revenue is below trend, sustaining adjusted EPS closer to estimates. Any commentary on contracted backlog and expected closings for the next two quarters will be pivotal for reassessing full-year earnings cadence.

Analyst Opinions

The institutional view in the recent period skews neutral. Citi maintained a Hold rating with a USD 27.00 price target on Rayonier, reflecting a balanced stance amid forecasted declines in quarterly revenue and earnings metrics. With the majority view aligned to neutrality rather than outright bullishness or bearishness, the emphasis is on execution of Real Estate closings and stability in timber price realization to meet or modestly beat the softened quarterly estimates. The neutral perspective suggests limited conviction for aggressive upside or downside, with valuation sensitivity to transaction timing and harvest economics guiding near-term positioning.