The U.S. Census Bureau released its full report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders on Wednesday. Data shows that seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured goods rose by $5.8 billion in July, an increase of 0.9% to $663.6 billion, snapping a two-month streak of declines. This gain exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.5% to 0.7% from market surveys. The June figure was revised upward to a decline of 0.2% from the initial reading of a 0.3% drop.
The full report covers both durable and non-durable goods, offering a more comprehensive view than the advance durable goods report released a week earlier. New orders for durable goods increased by $3.6 billion, up 1.1% on a monthly basis to $339.4 billion, matching the advance report figures. New orders for non-durable goods rose by $2.2 billion, up 0.7% to $324.2 billion, following a 0.9% decline in June. Excluding transportation equipment, factory orders advanced 0.6%, while excluding defense the gain was 1.0%. On a year-over-year basis, July factory orders were 6.5% higher compared to July 2025. The data is seasonally adjusted but does not account for price changes. The Census Bureau also noted that the survey cannot calculate statistical significance.
Transportation equipment led the gains, with clear demand recovery in civilian aircraft. Looking at segment details, transportation equipment was the primary driver behind the July rebound in factory orders. New orders in this category increased by $2.6 billion, up 2.3% month-over-month to $116.2 billion, ending two consecutive months of decline. Within this category, non-defense aircraft and parts surged 12.7% to $19.8 billion, defense aircraft and parts rose 4.9%, ships gained 5.3%, and motor vehicle bodies, parts, and trailers inched up 0.4%. Orders for metals and machinery also increased in tandem. Primary metals orders advanced 2.0%, machinery rose 0.8%, and fabricated metal products gained 0.6%. By contrast, computer and electronic products fell 1.1%, while electrical equipment, appliances, and components slipped 0.3%. Despite the monthly pullback, computer and electronic products were still up 14.3% year-over-year.
Aircraft orders typically exhibit significant monthly volatility, as a single large commercial aircraft contract can substantially lift overall factory orders. The July rebound in transportation equipment indeed pushed total factory orders back into positive territory, but the 0.6% gain ex-transportation indicates that the recovery is not solely concentrated in aircraft, with other manufacturing segments showing resilience as well.
Shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories all moved higher in tandem with the improvement in order intake. July shipments climbed $5.3 billion, up 0.8% to $658.8 billion, marking the ninth increase in the past ten months, while June shipments were nearly flat. Durable goods shipments rose 0.9% to $334.6 billion, slightly below the 1.0% advance report figure, with transportation equipment shipments up 1.3% at $111.6 billion. Non-durable goods shipments advanced 0.7%, led by petroleum and coal products, which rose 2.4% to $69.8 billion.
Unfilled orders increased by $9.9 billion, up 0.6% month-over-month to $1.6003 trillion, marking the twenty-fourth increase in the past twenty-five months. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio stood at 6.81, down from 6.84 in June. Durable goods unfilled orders rose 0.6%, with transportation equipment unfilled orders up 0.5% to $1.0063 trillion. The continued accumulation of backlogged orders suggests factories still have contracts to work through, though the slightly lower ratio relative to shipments indicates some improvement in delivery pace.
On the inventory side, July inventories increased by $3.5 billion, up 0.4% to $966.9 billion, marking the tenth consecutive monthly rise. The inventory-to-shipments ratio held steady at 1.47, unchanged from June. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% to $604.7 billion, with primary metals inventories up 1.5% to $52.0 billion. Non-durable goods inventories gained 0.3% to $362.2 billion, while petroleum and coal product inventories advanced 1.6% to $47.6 billion. By stage of fabrication, durable goods work-in-process inventories rose 0.6%, finished goods inventories gained 0.4%, and raw materials and supplies edged up 0.2%.
Overall, July factory orders rebounded on the back of civilian aircraft demand, with orders outside transportation equipment still maintaining growth and shipments and inventories expanding modestly. However, certain categories such as computer and electronic products saw monthly pullbacks, and the sustainability of commercial aircraft orders will require validation from upcoming data. The August factory orders report is scheduled for release on October 2.