Morgan Stanley believes that the humanoid robot industry is approaching a critical turning point, rapidly transitioning from the technology demonstration phase to commercial applications, with the global market size expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050.
According to Morgan Stanley's latest research report, the global humanoid robot market presents a three-way competitive landscape where China leads the commercialization process, Tesla's Optimus V3 sets the technological direction, and the Korean government increases investment to catch up.
Specifically, China leads globally in commercial orders with cumulative order amounts reaching 975 million yuan; Tesla's Optimus V3 has become a global focal point with breakthrough technological design; and the Korean government announced the establishment of a 150 trillion won (approximately $108 billion) high-tech industry fund, actively pursuing China and the United States.
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoid robots will be deployed worldwide, reaching 1.02 billion units by 2050, with annual revenue approaching $5 trillion—approximately twice the total revenue of the world's top 20 automakers in 2024.
Notably, the Morgan Stanley Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen 24.7% since its establishment on February 6, 2025, while China's humanoid robot value chain has surged 92.3% year-to-date, demonstrating strong market confidence in this sector.
**China Leads Commercialization: Nearly One Billion Yuan in Orders Demonstrates Industrial Progress**
Morgan Stanley states that China's humanoid robot industry is rapidly transitioning from technological R&D to commercial applications.
Key data shows significant acceleration in commercialization: Major domestic integrators (including Unitree Robotics, UBTECH, Aubo Robotics, Zhujidong, and Zhipingfang Robotics) have announced total orders approaching 1 billion yuan (approximately $140 million). The largest single order comes from Zhipingfang Robotics, which secured a 500 million yuan order from HKC semiconductor display production base to deploy 1,000 humanoid robots over the next three years.
Government support is unprecedented: Various levels of government have established industry funds totaling approximately 187 billion yuan. At the national level, the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative has been launched to accelerate the deployment of AI-driven robotics technology across industries. Local governments have also responded actively, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all setting ambitious development targets, expecting to form a complete industrial ecosystem by 2027.
In capital market performance, China's humanoid robot value chain equal-weight index has gained 92.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the MSCI China Index's 37.6% gain. Unitree announced its IPO application submission in the fourth quarter, which will serve as an important valuation benchmark for the industry.
**Tesla Optimus V3 Draws Most Attention: Technical Breakthroughs Lead Industry Direction**
Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed the latest details of Optimus V3 at the All-In Summit, with the robot designed to possess human-level hand dexterity and advanced AI capabilities to understand physical reality. This technological breakthrough has boosted industry sentiment globally.
Core technical breakthroughs include:
Revolutionary hand design progress: The V3 version will feature human-level hand dexterity, with Tesla designing motors, gearboxes, and electronic systems from scratch. The company demonstrated new mechanical hands with human-like tendon design at the October Robotaxi Day.
Significant AI computing power enhancement: Tesla's new-generation AI5 inference chip delivers 40 times the performance of the AI4 version, providing powerful computing support for robots' advanced reasoning capabilities.
Additionally, the production timeline has been updated. Musk stated that V3 is "the right design for mass production," representing an almost complete redesign compared to V2. Production of "hundreds of units" is expected by the end of 2025, rather than the previously planned thousands, with scaled production beginning in 2026. When annual capacity reaches 1 million units, production costs are expected to fall to $20,000-25,000.
In Musk's compensation plan, Tesla defines "robots" as "any robot or other physical product with mobility that uses artificial intelligence," leaving room for future product diversification.
**Korea Pursues China and US: $15 Billion Investment**
Furthermore, the Korean government and enterprises are actively positioning themselves in the humanoid robot sector, attempting to secure a place in the competitive landscape dominated by China and the United States. The Korean government announced the establishment of a 150 trillion won (approximately $108 billion) high-tech industry fund, focusing on investments in AI, robotics, and other fields.
At the enterprise level, Hyundai Motor demonstrates humanoid robot potential through Boston Dynamics, planning to establish a robot factory in the United States with an annual capacity of 30,000 units. Samsung Electronics is building its humanoid robot ecosystem in both hardware and software aspects, potentially becoming a strong competitor in this field.
From a technological development perspective, Korean companies like Rainbow Robotics have launched the RB-Y1 humanoid robot for industrial logistics applications, demonstrating certain technical capabilities. Although still lagging behind China and the US in overall scale and commercialization progress, Korea's traditional advantages in precision manufacturing and electronic technology provide a solid foundation for its development in the humanoid robot industry.
In investment performance, the MSCI Korea Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen 29.1% since establishment, showing the best performance among major indices, reflecting market optimism about Korea's development prospects in humanoid robots and other emerging technology fields.