On Wednesday, international gold opened at $4,510.15, reached a high of $4,539.60, fell to a low of $4,401.13, and closed at $4,455.90. The daily range was $138.47, with a decline of $51.12 or 1.13%. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish line with a lower shadow. After fluctuating around the $4,500 level, gold prices declined as expected, finding temporary support at the $4,400 mark. However, the bottom remains to be confirmed, requiring patience for opportunities.

Geopolitically, the U.S. has committed to a 60-day ceasefire, and Iranian media disclosed a preliminary informal framework for a memorandum of understanding, signaling a shift towards negotiations. Consequently, market concerns over disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have eased, leading to a decline in geopolitical risk premiums. However, the progress in talks remains fragile: U.S. officials revealed that the Pentagon has prepared a list of targets within Iran; former President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the current negotiation process; and the U.S. military conducted another brief airstrike on Iran, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to claim a retaliatory strike on a U.S. airbase. Overall, while the U.S. continues to prepare for conflict while negotiating, market pricing is leaning towards expectations of a diplomatic resolution, making geopolitical factors a temporary negative for gold prices.

In terms of monetary policy, global expectations for interest rate hikes are intensifying, leading to a tightening interest rate environment. Rising energy prices are exacerbating inflation concerns, pressuring central banks to adopt tighter policies. Australia has already raised rates, and markets anticipate rate hikes by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand within the year. Current market pricing indicates a roughly 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, making rate hike expectations a baseline scenario. The shift in global central bank policies increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, creating a macro-background of medium-term pressure on gold prices.

Overall, under the dual pressures of high uncertainty in Middle East conflicts and rising global central bank rate hike expectations, gold lacks short-term support and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

Technically, since early April, gold prices have consistently traded below the 60-day moving average, indicating a weak overall pattern. Although prices have rebounded multiple times, both the highs and lows have gradually declined, forming a downtrend. Yesterday, gold prices retreated after encountering resistance between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short-term key resistance zone, touching the $4,400 integer level, which also aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level from the $4,889 high. Therefore, while a potential bottom may be forming, the overall weak pattern remains unchanged, with the possibility of continued low-level volatility. The overall trading range is temporarily focused between $4,520 and $4,385, with the core range being $4,500 to $4,400.