Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei recently published a lengthy 3,800-word essay, citing safety concerns among other factors, to urge a more measured pace in frontier AI development. The stance quickly garnered support from Elon Musk and OpenAI founder Sam Altman. Following this news, market anxieties surrounding AI intensified once again, with AI-related sectors in both the Korean stock market and China's A-shares experiencing declines on the day.

In response, Liu Lisi, a fund manager from the Invesco Great Wall technology team, noted that it is currently difficult to make a clear judgment based on this information alone. Some speculate that the call is indeed tied to safety considerations, while others view it as a potential explanation for a slowdown in ARR growth. How will this development impact the broader tech sector? Liu Lisi shared his forward-looking views on the market.

First, he believes that model innovation occurring internally at leading tech firms is unlikely to decelerate as a result. Even with safety factors in play, the question is more about which new models are chosen for public release and the timing of those releases. Second, the overarching cycle of the AI industrial revolution has not been disproven, but its development trajectory is bound to experience fluctuations. For instance, there can be a period of vacuum between the transition from chatbots to agents, and such volatility is a natural part of the progression.

Third, the current slowdown in ARR growth is not new information; it has been the core reason behind this round of market correction. At present, model innovation continues, and there is a possibility that an eventual shift from quantitative accumulation to qualitative change could unlock new application scenarios. Overall, looking at the AI industry holistically, the fundamental feedback from many core companies within the AI supply chain remains positive. CSP capital expenditure continues to show sustained growth, and this high level of prosperity on the supply side has held the industry's baseline, as industry participants tend to have longer decision-making horizons. With share prices and valuations having already declined significantly, adopting a defensive mindset suggests that one should not be overly pessimistic. The key going forward will be to monitor commercialization progress, which will determine the sector's stock price elasticity.

Regarding portfolio allocation, Liu Lisi leans towards gradually optimizing his holdings during this process, with the core task being to identify industries or stocks with strong alpha potential. For example, within the overseas AI supply chain, he suggests actively seeking assets with robust alpha characteristics. The price-increase chain, which has performed well this year, exemplifies this by combining the beta factor of growing AI demand with supply-side alpha, leading to substantial profit growth for companies through pricing power. Looking ahead, excess returns can be sought from dimensions such as rising demand share in total investment, supply-side constraints, and the remaining headroom for domestic substitution.

Furthermore, domestic AI acts as a follower to overseas players, and the commercial scenarios already validated abroad represent future growth space for local companies. Even if overseas growth rates decelerate marginally, as long as domestic AI capabilities continue to achieve breakthroughs, there is potential for phased opportunities to emerge. Liu Lisi is a next-generation fund manager at Invesco Great Wall, known for grounding his strategy in in-depth research to identify definitive industry trends and quality companies from a medium-to-long-term perspective. He adheres to an investment philosophy that respects industry laws and plain facts. As a member of the Invesco Great Wall technology team, he works alongside a group of fund managers specializing in tech, using a research framework that combines vertical deep dives with cross-industry collaboration to cover semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing. The team has earned a reputation in the market for its deep tech understanding and astute investment approach. The views expressed above reflect the current perspective and may change in the future. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, guarantees, or legal documents.