市场预期六月通胀数据将首次显著反映关税影响，但美联储仍可能维持降息步伐。作为关键通胀指标的消费者价格指数（CPI）周二即将公布，经济学家预测整体物价将环比上涨0.3%，剔除食品能源的核心通胀率同样攀升0.3%。若预测准确，年化通胀率恐逼近3%，远超美联储2%的政策目标。
尽管特朗普时代关税已实施数月，其通胀效应却迟未显现。多重因素形成缓冲：白宫撤销部分关税减轻价格压力；企业提前囤积库存延缓涨价传导；国际油价年内下跌14%及住房成本增速创疫情前新低，共同压制了整体通胀水平。
商品领域已显露端倪。过去十二个月工具、家具及新车等商品价格上涨0.3%，扭转了此前连续十二个月的下行趋势。富国银行经济学家萨姆·布拉德指出："关税仅引发价格水平暂时性调整。"花旗分析师同样认为："通胀压力将局限于商品领域且持续时间有限。"
美联储决策天平正倾向劳动力市场。六月私营部门新增岗位创去年秋季以来新低，失业救济申领人数升至四年高位。富国银行预测，若通胀未现意外飙升，疲软的就业市场将促使美联储于九月降息。布拉德强调："劳动力表现将成为关键决策依据。"
当前经济呈现矛盾信号：一方面关税可能推升短期通胀，另一方面就业市场降温需要货币政策支持。美联储官员普遍认为，任何关税引发的物价上涨都属暂时现象，不会改变其通过降息刺激经济的政策路径。
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