European financial stability officials are discussing ways to reduce reliance on the U.S. financial system by pooling dollar reserves held by non-U.S. central banks.
According to sources, discussions are underway about creating an alternative to the Federal Reserve's dollar liquidity support mechanisms, which provide dollar loans to other central banks during market stress to ensure global financial stability.
Officials from European central banks and regulators reportedly fear these mechanisms could be weaponized under a potential Trump administration. Concerns reportedly peaked in April when tariff threats shook global markets.
While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has defended the importance of swap lines, uncertainty looms over whether the next Fed leadership might link financial tools with geopolitics after Powell's term ends in May 2025.
However, creating a dollar reserve pool faces practical challenges. Although non-U.S. central banks collectively hold trillions in dollar reserves, they cannot match the Fed's capacity as the issuer of the world's reserve currency. Such a pool might address localized liquidity crunches but would struggle during broader market turmoil.
Logistical and political hurdles also exist. Any hint of Fed withdrawal from swap arrangements could itself trigger market stress, making central banks reluctant to share reserves.
Europe is not without precedents. The ASEAN+3's Chiang Mai Initiative, a $240 billion multilateral currency swap arrangement, serves as one model. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently highlighted the importance of such layered approaches.
Alternative measures under consideration include stricter oversight of banks' dollar funding plans and stress testing their ability to source dollars from non-U.S. markets. The issue of building resilience without U.S. dependence reportedly surfaces in every central bank meeting.
While dollar shortages during crises can amplify problems, the Fed's swap lines have been crucial for global stability, peaking at $449 billion during COVID-19. A Deutsche Bank report noted these tools influence the $97 trillion FX swap market - equivalent to global GDP.
Though losing swap access isn't currently a top concern, European officials continue contingency planning. Their primary worry focuses on potential changes after Powell's term ends, as Trump may appoint the next Fed chair.
As one source summarized: "Officials need to consider worst-case scenarios."