1月9日,随着伊朗爆发致命抗议活动以及美国发出报复威胁,原油市场对伊朗局势的反应日益剧烈。布伦特原油期货在过去两个交易日上涨超过4%,此前该价格已回吐了上周末美军抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后带来的全部涨幅。交易员目前为对冲未来油价飙升而支付的期权溢价,已达到自去年夏天以色列与伊朗互换空袭以来的最高水平。
尽管委内瑞拉局势因美国计划将数百万桶原油推向全球市场而迅速转为价格利空,但伊朗作为规模大得多的生产国和出口国,其任何供应中断的影响都将更为深远。A/S Global Risk Management首席分析师 Arne Lohmann Rasmussen表示:“焦点现已转向爆发暴力抗议的伊朗。市场日益担心特朗普领导下的美国可能会利用这种混乱局面,尝试推翻该政权,就像我们在委内瑞拉看到的那样。”本周布伦特原油看涨期权成交量超过75万份,为10月以来最高。
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