LCD Panel Prices Accelerate Gains in February as Supply-Demand Dynamics Amplify Earnings Flexibility

Stock News
Feb 09

According to a research report, mainland Chinese manufacturers have achieved absolute dominance in the LCD sector, with reduced cyclicality leading to more stable profitability. On the supply side, reduced output during the Lunar New Year holiday period at panel factories will further bolster and solidify the upward price cycle for panels. For downstream television products, ongoing optimism remains regarding the global expansion and technological leadership of domestic brands. Additionally, the implementation of AI at the device level in display scenarios is expected to stimulate replacement and upgrade demand. It is recommended to focus on the profit flexibility brought by rising upstream panel prices and the passing of peak depreciation periods, with attention on TCL Technology (000100.SZ) and BOE (000725.SZ). For downstream brands, TCL Electronics (01070) and Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH) are recommended. Key viewpoints are as follows: An oligopolistic structure has formed on the supply side, with mainland Chinese manufacturers holding absolute dominance in the LCD field, and weakened cyclicality contributing to profit stability. On the demand side, trends toward larger sizes and technological iteration create sustained growth momentum. Panel price increases accelerated in February, driven by stocking for sporting events and rising memory prices on the demand side, coupled with tighter supply due to holiday adjustments, collectively pushing panel prices into an upward cycle. According to industry statistics, February price increases were $1 for 32-43 inch panels, $2 for 50/55 inch panels, $3 for 65-75 inch panels, and $5 for 85 inch panels, corresponding to increases of 1-3%, 2%, 1-2%, and 1-2%, respectively. On the demand side, the World Cup event is providing a boost, while rising memory prices are accelerating the trend toward larger TV sizes. This shift is pressuring brands to reduce focus on smaller-size TVs due to lower margins and an inability to absorb cost increases. Additionally, TCL Electronics' acquisition of a controlling stake in Sony's TV business is challenging Samsung's global leadership, potentially intensifying competition among top brands. Samsung may increase short-term TV stocking strategies to widen its gap with TCL. On the supply side, reduced output during the Lunar New Year holiday will further reinforce the upward price cycle for panels. For upstream panels: Mainland Chinese LCD panel makers hold a 72% global market share, with TCL CSOT and BOE together accounting for over 50%. TCL CSOT's panel production lines have passed their peak depreciation period, releasing profit flexibility. The peak overall depreciation for CSOT occurred in 2025, and it is estimated that depreciation amounts will decline annually starting in 2026. The T4 production line and T6 production line will see depreciation expire sequentially in 2026, with the T7 line following in 2028. TCL Zhonghuan is expected to contribute significantly to earnings, with its acquisition positioning it in the battery module segment and space photovoltaic sector, projected to substantially boost TCL Technology's profit performance in 2026-2027. For downstream TVs: The adoption of MiniLED technology and larger screen sizes help transmit comprehensive cost pressures. Global MiniLED TV shipments are forecast to exceed 20 million units by 2026, with penetration surpassing 10%. While MiniLED increases the importance of backlight units, indirectly reducing the proportion of panel costs, and larger sizes support higher prices, there remains flexibility to absorb cost pressures and pass them to end consumers. Ongoing optimism exists for the global expansion and technological leadership of TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual Technology, with the domestic leaders poised to replicate the dominant performance historically seen from Samsung and LG Display. Furthermore, the implementation of AI at the device level in display scenarios is expected to activate replacement and upgrade demand. Risks include weaker-than-expected end demand, macroeconomic policy risks, and geopolitical conflicts.

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