After a prolonged downward price cycle, global memory chip contract prices have experienced an unusual non-linear surge since Q2 2025, particularly over the past month. DRAM and NAND prices have skyrocketed from double-digit increases to even several-fold jumps in certain segments. The driving factor is straightforward: The insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA’s H100 has forced memory giants such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to shift production capacity from traditional PC DRAM and NAND to far more profitable HBM.

This "AI siphon effect" has tightened supply for conventional PC memory, pressuring manufacturers with soaring material costs. While analysts and investment banks have singled out traditional OEMs like Dell, HP, and Acer—known for channel and low-cost strategies—as vulnerable to margin erosion, Lenovo Group and Apple are seen as exceptions likely to remain "immune" or even benefit long-term from this memory price surge.

The rationale is simple: These two companies either rely heavily on enterprise clients with strong cost-pass-through capabilities or wield dominant supply chain leverage and brand溢价. Both share extensive experience in navigating cyclical and risk-prone environments.

**Supply Chain Squeeze** The AI data center boom has prioritized production for high-margin HBM and enterprise SSDs, leaving mid-to-low-end DDR and client SSDs with lower delivery priority and higher spot/contract prices. In 2025, the global DRAM market is projected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM accounting for under 30% of revenue but over half of profit growth.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have redirected nearly all advanced-node capacity to HBM and enterprise SSDs for NVIDIA, AMD, and cloud giants. SK Hynix’s 2025 HBM capacity is fully booked, Micron’s HBM3E orders stretch into 2026, and Samsung has slashed DDR4 output to below 20% of 2025 levels.

For laptops, where DRAM/NAND typically constitutes 10–18% of BOM costs (over 20% in high-end models), a 20% price hike adds $30–50 to each $800 device. If unpassed through, this erodes margins by 3–6 percentage points—a direct hit to consumer-focused players like Dell (55% consumer PC sales), HP (45%), and Acer (70%).

Morgan Stanley’s November 17, 2025, report labels Dell and HP as "most vulnerable" to memory inflation, forecasting a 2–4 ppt drop in their FY2026 PC margins. It downgraded Dell (Overweight to Underweight), HP (Neutral to Underweight), and Acer parent Quanta, while maintaining Overweight on Apple and trimming Lenovo to Neutral.

**Defensive Moats** Lenovo’s global PC dominance (25%+ share) and enterprise-heavy revenue (65% commercial) grant it supply chain clout and pricing power. Its ThinkPad/Centre lines enjoy near-monopoly loyalty in sectors like finance and government, where TCO outweighs sticker prices. Enterprise PCs ($1,100+ ASP vs. $620 consumer) absorb cost hikes more easily via long-term contracts with built-in adjustment clauses.

Apple’s edge is even sharper. As a top-tier DRAM/NAND buyer, it locks in "take-or-pay" contracts guaranteeing priority supply at preferential rates. Its MacBooks’ unified memory architecture keeps storage costs at just 8–12% of BOM, while premium pricing (e.g., 16GB standard) and multi-supplier hedging further insulate margins.

**Winners in Disguise?** While both Lenovo and Apple face profit pressure, their commercial leverage and supply chain fortresses minimize the blow. Lenovo’s scale, diversified sourcing, and enterprise contracts compress margin impact; Apple’s pricing power and high-margin ecosystem enable near-full cost pass-through.

This memory "supercycle" may persist, accelerating industry consolidation. What appears as a broad PC sector penalty could ultimately reward those with the deepest moats—solidifying Apple and Lenovo’s market strongholds.