The United States' share in global trade has declined, yet trade among other nations is flourishing. On January 20th, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, delivered a memorable address that encapsulated a growing consensus among politicians, commentators, and the public during the second year of the Trump administration's second term: the world is descending into a Hobbesian state of global disorder. Prime Minister Carney warned attendees that new American unilateralism is causing "fractures" in the global system, heralding a return to an era of great power competition where, as Thucydides noted, "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." It is also widely believed that the world economy is disintegrating. Professor Francisco H.G. Ferreira of the London School of Economics wrote in April that "the post-war global economic order is finally on the brink of collapse." A Pew Research Center survey found that an average of 70% of respondents across 25 countries view the global economic situation as a major threat to their nation. However, from an economic standpoint, these narratives and mindsets do not align with reality. The global economy is booming with unprecedented vigor across nearly all regions, creating a distorted, funhouse-mirror effect between perceptions and actual economic conditions. Consider global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). One might assume that the cumulative impact of recent events—including the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, the aggressive and unpredictable policies of President Donald Trump, and Russia's bombardment of Ukraine—would suppress global growth. Yet, this is not the case. World Bank data indicates a global growth rate of 2.6% for 2025, while the International Monetary Fund reports 3.3%. While this represents a slight decline from 2023 and 2024, the world has generally grown more prosperous since the mid-20th century. Furthermore, growth rates typically moderate as countries become wealthier and populations age. Dozens of developing nations, including India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and Vietnam, are experiencing robust growth and expanding middle-class wealth.
What about the anticipated economic chaos from the trade wars initiated by new US tariffs? Such disruption is absent from the data and global trade flows. Despite US tariff levels reaching heights not seen since the 1930s (though still lower than announced in April of last year), America's total trade volume increased in 2025. Meanwhile, trade between countries not involving the US has prospered. Although the US remains a major importer and exporter, its share of world trade has diminished as the overall volume of global trade expands. Chinese exports to the US have steadily declined, but its exports to the rest of the world have grown even faster. This is partly to circumvent tariffs, but more significantly, it reflects rapidly strengthening connections between nations as America's central role diminishes.
New trade agreements are being announced by countries or blocs seemingly every month. Since September, the European Union has signed pacts with India, Indonesia, and the Mercosur nations of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay), and is currently negotiating with the UAE, Australia, and the Philippines. Canada recently signed an agreement with South Korea and is considering a more comprehensive trade treaty with China. The United Kingdom recently acceded to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Nearly all 55 African nations have signed the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement. Central Asian republics are progressively establishing their own free trade areas and cooperating with China on related initiatives. Trade serves as just one symbol; the world is moving forward, with or without the United States. Growth in most major economies continues to surpass expectations. Accelerating urbanization, improved education levels, increased consumption by a growing middle class, and enhanced governance are dominant trends in most countries, overshadowing the war, oppression, and escalating regional tensions that dominate headlines. While these headlines reflect real events, they are disproportionate to the broader reality. Reports of robust economic growth in Southeast Asia do not align with the extensive coverage of dire situations in places like Sudan, Iran, or Gaza. Part of the issue lies in the nature of news and politics: without conflict or bloodshed, there is often no headline. However, the root of this cognitive disconnect is that many positive developments occur quietly, while negative events are highly conspicuous. The uproar caused by Trump's interest in Greenland influences perceptions but does not impact the daily lives of billions in countries like India, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, who are experiencing consistent, tangible gains in material prosperity. The disconnect between extreme pessimism and fairly positive trends carries consequences. It fosters a general atmosphere of fear, anxiety, and pessimism which, over time, can influence behavior and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Admittedly, the global political landscape appears to be fracturing away from the post-1945 system, with its future direction uncertain. The United States is clearly making a decisive break from this order, no longer upholding the rules of the global economy. In the long term, this may prove detrimental to the US, but for now, the overall harm to the globe seems less apparent. More people worldwide have access to adequate food, housing, healthcare, and the material and virtual benefits of modern society than ever before. While far from perfect, the present world is considerably better than much of the post-1945 era often viewed with nostalgia.