Abstract

Lazard will report first-quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026 Pre-Market, with investor attention centered on a revenue outlook near 724.81 million US dollars and adjusted EPS around 0.51, alongside sensitivity to advisory deal closings and recent swings in asset-management assets under management.

Market Forecast

For the first quarter of 2026, forecasts point to total revenue of 724.81 million US dollars, up 9.08% year over year, EBIT of 102.67 million US dollars, up 28.65% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.51, up 34.10% year over year; margin forecasts were not provided. Within company-level priorities, the advisory franchise remains central, with a carryover of mandates from late 2025 underpinning the new year; Financial Advisory contributed 542.30 million US dollars in the previous quarter. The business with the sharpest near-term earnings torque is advisory, where the company-wide revenue forecast implies a 9.08% annual growth backdrop; segment-specific year-over-year growth was not disclosed, but the previous quarter’s segment revenue base supports potential upside if announced transactions convert to retained fees on closing.

Last Quarter Review

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Lazard delivered revenue of 892.11 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 90.82%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 49.86 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 5.59%, and adjusted EPS of 0.80, with revenue up 9.81% year over year and adjusted EPS up 2.56% year over year. A notable highlight was profitability outperformance versus expectations: adjusted EPS exceeded the consensus by 0.11, and EBIT reached 148.56 million US dollars, rising 18.03% year over year, while quarter-on-quarter net profit contracted by 30.01%. In business mix terms, Financial Advisory contributed 542.30 million US dollars and Asset Management contributed 367.12 million US dollars, while corporate/other was a small negative; despite limited segment-level year-over-year disclosures, the company entered 2026 with a healthy advisory fee base and fee-earning assets that were stable through January and February before encountering March market headwinds.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Advisory revenue trajectory and cost discipline

The core profit engine this quarter is advisory, where fees typically hinge on the value and timing of closed transactions and restructuring or liability-management mandates. Coming off a fourth quarter in which Financial Advisory generated 542.30 million US dollars, the company’s first-quarter revenue forecast implies a normalized step down that is consistent with seasonal patterns but still embeds a 9.08% year-over-year increase at the firm level. The breadth of mandates entering the quarter, including liability-management engagements and M&A mandates carried over from late 2025, provides a base for fee conversion if the transactions reach signing and closing milestones. Management’s ongoing emphasis on compensation alignment and expense discipline should help protect margins against the inherent lumpiness of quarterly advisory revenues, supporting the forecasted 28.65% year-over-year increase in EBIT to 102.67 million US dollars despite a lower top line versus the fourth quarter.

Advisory fee realization will likely be the single biggest swing factor for the quarter’s earnings. The cadence of announced and closed deals, the contribution from liability-management engagements, and the timing of revenue recognition can tilt results by tens of millions of US dollars within a single quarter. Against that backdrop, investors will parse qualitative commentary for signals on the backlog, conversion rates, and the distribution of engagements by sector and region. A mid-single-digit percentage change in the number or size of closings can have a disproportionate impact on the quarter’s adjusted EPS around the 0.51 mark, given operating leverage in a largely fixed cost base.

Expense control remains a lever to absorb revenue volatility. The company’s compensation ratio, hiring cadence, and non-compensation savings are closely watched, since even modest reductions in variable compensation or tight management of non-comp costs can preserve EBIT margin in a quarter with unpredictable closing activity. If advisory fees land near the midpoint of internal expectations, investors could see operating leverage begin to improve through 2026 as productivity of recent senior hires rises and the revenue base broadens.

Most promising business: Asset Management fee stability amid AUM volatility

Asset Management contributed 367.12 million US dollars in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remains a steady fee generator. Entering 2026, preliminary assets under management were approximately 267.00 billion US dollars at January 31, 2026, rose to about 277.74 billion US dollars at February 29, 2026, and then declined to roughly 259.20 billion US dollars at March 31, 2026. These movements reflect a combination of market returns, foreign-exchange effects, and net flows, with February benefiting from market appreciation and net inflows, and March encountering market losses and currency headwinds partially offset by net inflows.

Quarterly fee revenue is primarily a function of average AUM and product mix. The early-quarter AUM lift followed by a late-quarter downdraft suggests a quarter-average that could still compare well to the prior-year first quarter, supporting the company-wide revenue forecast of 724.81 million US dollars, up 9.08% year over year. Equity-biased strategies, which account for the bulk of AUM, are sensitive to late-quarter market levels; sustained net inflows would help cushion the fee base if markets remain choppy. Product mix also matters: multi-asset and alternatives tend to carry higher fee rates than large-cap core equity; incremental mix shifts can add basis points to the blended fee rate even if headline AUM is flat.

The company’s commentary around net flows, investment performance, and fee rate dynamics will be pivotal this quarter. AUM resilience in January and February informs a constructive starting point for average first-quarter balances, while March’s decline will weigh on exit AUM and second-quarter fee run rate. The outlook for flows in global and international equity, as well as solutions and thematic strategies, could serve as a gauge for second-half fee growth. If performance remains competitive in flagship strategies, the franchise can retain pricing and attract mandates that offset episodic market setbacks, helping drive steadier EBIT contribution from asset management through the year.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Share performance around the print is likely to be driven by three variables: advisory fee conversion, asset-management AUM and pricing, and margin trajectory. Advisory outcomes can sway results substantially given the magnitude of single-deal fees, which carry high incremental margins. Better-than-expected closings would flow through to EBIT, amplifying the 28.65% year-over-year increase already embedded in forecasts; conversely, delays into subsequent quarters would leave revenue closer to the guided 724.81 million US dollars and keep adjusted EPS near the 0.51 baseline.

Asset management’s AUM path is the second key influence. The rise to 277.74 billion US dollars in February followed by the March step-down to 259.20 billion US dollars resets expectations for the forward fee run rate; management’s update on April market performance and early-quarter flows will be important for investors assessing the sustainability of fee revenue into the second quarter. Pricing integrity and product mix, particularly the balance among equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives, can buffer fee revenue even when AUM oscillates.

Margin trajectory is the third focal point. Last quarter’s gross margin of 90.82% and net margin of 5.59% reflected a cost structure that can deliver incremental profit on revenue stabilization. This quarter, investors will watch the compensation ratio, the timing of investment in senior hires, and non-compensation cost controls. Progress on these items can help translate a 9.08% year-over-year revenue increase into a proportionally larger EBIT advance, especially as hiring productivity rises and the revenue base broadens. Equally, any uptick in variable compensation or elevated non-comp expenses would cap the drop-through from advisory and asset-management revenue to adjusted EPS.

Analyst Opinions

Across recently published views during the year to date, cautious opinions constitute the majority, representing roughly two-thirds of tracked stances versus about one-third bullish. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods shifted Lazard to Market Perform with a 47.00 US dollars price target, signaling a more guarded stance on near-term upside. UBS maintained a Neutral rating while lowering its target to 48.00 US dollars, emphasizing the balance between an improving earnings base and the variability inherent in quarterly advisory revenues and fee-sensitive asset-management earnings. In contrast, Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy and a 65.00 US dollars target and later trimmed its target to 63.00 US dollars while maintaining a positive view; however, bullish perspectives were fewer than cautious ones in the period considered.

The cautious majority generally centers on three concerns. First, the inherent lumpiness of advisory fees can drive quarter-to-quarter variability in adjusted EPS, making near-term forecasting less certain even as the medium-term mandate pipeline appears constructive. Second, the recent AUM reversal into March to approximately 259.20 billion US dollars underscores sensitivity of the asset-management fee base to market levels and currencies; while net inflows partially offset market losses, exit AUM shapes the next quarter’s run rate. Third, the cadence of operating leverage is still normalizing as headcount investments and cost initiatives work through the system; until compensation ratios and non-compensation expenses settle into a steadier pattern, the translation from revenue growth to margin expansion may be uneven.

From this perspective, the upcoming report’s most important signals will not be the point estimates themselves—724.81 million US dollars for revenue and 0.51 in adjusted EPS—but management’s qualitative guidance on advisory backlog conversion and the direction of April AUM and flows. If the company indicates that late-quarter deal slippage is limited and that AUM has stabilized or recovered in early April, cautious analysts could shift toward constructive. Conversely, commentary that points to deal timing slipping into later quarters or continued AUM pressure would likely validate the prevailing Market Perform and Neutral stances and keep price targets in the high 40s to low 60s range under current assumptions.

On balance, the cautious majority expects modest upside or downside around the forecast numbers rather than a step-change in the earnings profile this quarter. The consensus implied by Neutral and Market Perform ratings aligns with a view that the first quarter will show year-over-year improvement—9.08% for revenue and 34.10% for adjusted EPS—while still reflecting normal seasonality and episodic AUM volatility. As the year progresses, consistent advisory conversion and steadier net inflows would be the catalysts that could convert caution into a more positive tilt; until there is evidence of that consistency, the majority view holds that quarterly results are likely to track close to current expectations, with share performance responding most to updates on backlog quality, AUM stability, and expense discipline.