A look at the major financial events scheduled for the week of February 9th to February 15th. All times mentioned are in Beijing Time.

The core themes for the upcoming week are as follows: The focus in macroeconomic data will be on inflation figures from both the United States and China. Due to a brief US government shutdown, the Non-Farm Payrolls report has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11th, coinciding with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the same week. A combination of "weak employment and strong inflation" would present the most significant market risk. Domestically, China's January aggregate financing and inflation data are also due for release, with markets eager to assess the strength of the expected positive economic start to the year. Secondly, attention turns to the "Spring Festival offensive" in the technology sector. The Lunar New Year holiday has become a key battleground for promoting AI applications, with giants like Alibaba and ByteDance initiating subsidy wars worth tens of billions. New models such as DeepSeek and Grok are poised for release. In capital markets, software companies like AppLovin and Unity will face scrutiny to validate whether the recent sharp decline in their stock prices, attributed to fears of 'AI disruption,' is justified. Financial reports from SMIC, NetEase, and Applied Materials will provide direction for the semiconductor and internet sectors. Concurrently, several advanced technology firms, including XianDao Intelligent and Aixin Yuanzhi Semiconductor, are proceeding with Hong Kong IPOs. Thirdly, new geopolitical developments require monitoring. Former President Trump has confirmed that a new round of negotiations with Iran will take place. In a rare move, the US military has convened a meeting with senior officials from 34 countries, indicating a rise in the complexity of geopolitical maneuvering. Reactions in oil prices and safe-haven assets should be watched closely. Finally, volatility in the precious metals market is anticipated. Next week, exchanges including the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will implement密集 adjustments to trading margin requirements for futures contracts on gold, silver, copper, and other metals.

**Economic Indicators**

**China's Financial and Inflation Data** China is set to release its January financial and inflation data. Caitong Securities forecasts a slight decrease in the CPI year-on-year by 0.4%, with PPI falling 1.5% year-on-year. Zhejiang Shang Securities predicts CPI growth of 0.6% year-on-year and a PPI decline of 1.8% year-on-year. Regarding financial data, the quality of the strong start to the year is under scrutiny. Caitong Securities anticipates new aggregate financing of 7.38 trillion yuan for January, while Zhejiang Shang Securities offers a more conservative projection of 6.9 trillion yuan.

**US Non-Farm Payrolls and Inflation Data Released Unusually Close Together** Due to a recent "brief shutdown" of the US government, the Non-Farm Payrolls data has been delayed to February 11th, resulting in the rare occurrence of both the US jobs report and CPI data being released in the same week. Current market expectations for January non-farm job growth are concentrated in the range of 60,000 to 80,000. A figure below this range could intensify discussions about interest rate cuts. The CPI data will be watched for signs of seasonal price pressures at the start of the year. A scenario combining "weak employment and strong inflation" is considered the primary market risk.

**Financial Events**

**Iran Situation: Trump Announces US Will Engage in New Talks with Iran (Event spans the week)** Markets will focus on a planned new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran. According to reports, former President Trump has publicly confirmed that dialogue will take place next week. However, market expectations for a breakthrough are low due to fundamental differences in the parties' positions: the US side demands a comprehensive agreement covering nuclear issues, missiles, and regional activities, while Iran insists that talks focus solely on nuclear issues, with the lifting of sanctions as the core demand.

**AI and Robotics Competition Intensifies: Major Players Launch Red Envelope and Freebie Campaigns (Event spans the week)** February will see a series of key developments globally in the AI sector. In China, the period around the Spring Festival serves as a crucial window for promoting AI applications. From February 1st to February 17th, YuanBao initiated an activity to distribute 1 billion RMB in cash. Baidu's Wenxin started offering 500 million RMB in cash red packets from January 26th, continuing until March 12th. On February 6th, Alibaba's QianWen app announced a 3 billion RMB campaign for the Spring Festival offensive and extended the validity of its freebie cards until February 28th, fully integrating services from Hema and Taobao Flash Sales. Furthermore, Unitree Robotics announced on January 26th that it has become the "2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner," marking its third appearance on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

Simultaneously, several Chinese companies plan to release new-generation models: DeepSeek is expected to launch its powerful programming-focused V4 model in February; ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to release DouBao 2.0 and Tongyi Qianwen 3.5 models around the Spring Festival, respectively. Overseas, February also brings several product updates and commercialization initiatives. Musk's xAI plans a major upgrade for its large language model, Grok, in February. OpenAI is reportedly set to launch an advertising service for its chatbot this month. Apple plans to release a more personalized version of Siri powered by Google's Gemini. In early February, Anthropic introduced Claude Cowork, an AI tool capable of directly operating computers to complete software tasks, news which initially caused declines in the stock prices of some traditional SaaS companies.

**Munich Security Conference and EU Defense Minister Meeting** The Munich Security Conference takes place from February 13th to 15th, with discussions expected to focus on the future of NATO and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, EU defense ministers will meet in Brussels next week to exchange views on supporting Ukraine.

**Report: US Military Joint Chiefs Chairman to Hold "Rare" Meeting with 34 Nations** According to reports citing US media, while the US military continues operations against so-called "drug trafficking vessels," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Cain is convening a "rare" meeting with senior military officials from 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere. The meeting is scheduled for February 11th, with defense ministers and senior military representatives attending "to enhance consensus on shared security priorities and deepen regional cooperation."

**Chinese Exchanges Adjust Margin Requirements for Gold, Silver, Copper Futures** The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) have announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts, effective from the settlement on February 9th. Adjustments affect contracts for international copper, gold, silver, methanol, paraxylene, PTA, short-staple fiber, and bottle chips. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) also adjusted margin ratios for several gold contracts from 17% to 18%. Additionally, on February 13th, the day before the Chinese New Year's Eve, there will be no night trading session on the SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and Dalian Commodity Exchange.

**Tesla to Discontinue FSD "One-Time Payment" Model** Elon Musk announced that Tesla will discontinue the "one-time payment" option for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package after February 14th. Tesla currently offers FSD in the US for a one-time payment of $8,000 or a monthly subscription of $99. As of the end of 2025, approximately 12% of Tesla vehicles had subscribed to the FSD service.

**Amazon Leo Satellite Launch** An Amazon Low Earth Orbit satellite is scheduled for launch on February 12th by Arianespace. This satellite communication network, renamed from "Project Kuiper" to Amazon Leo, has already deployed 180 satellites into space. This launch will send the first 32 Leo satellites, with a planned constellation exceeding 3,000 satellites. The network aims to provide service to users, businesses, and governments in the US, Canada, France, Germany, and the UK by the end of Q1 2026.

**Speeches by Fed Officials and ECB President Lagarde** Next week, several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, including Cleveland Fed President Harker on the banking and economic outlook, Atlanta Fed President Bostic on monetary policy and the economic perspective, and Dallas Fed President Logan. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will participate in a discussion on the economic situation of the EU and ECB activities.

**Earnings Reports and Hong Kong IPO Activity**

**SMIC, NetEase, AppLovin, Applied Materials, Coreweave** The earnings season continues, with focus on the recently volatile AI application and software stock sector, as well as key technology companies. Software companies like Unity, AppLovin, S&P Global, and Robinhood, which have been at the center of the storm, will be scrutinized to justify their recent sharp stock declines. Simultaneously, companies in the AI supply chain, such as Cisco and Applied Materials, will provide the latest insights into AI demand. OpenAI supply chain companies like Coreweave are also closely watched. Additionally, restaurant giants McDonald's and Coca-Cola will report earnings. The Coinbase exchange will also release its latest results. Mining giant Vale released its Q4 production report on January 27th and will report earnings on February 12th. For US-listed Chinese stocks, revenue from NetEase's gaming business and guidance on the semiconductor industry recovery from SMIC are key focal points.

**Aixin Yuanzhi Semiconductor Hong Kong IPO** Chip manufacturer Aixin Yuanzhi Semiconductor recently announced its intention to raise HKD 2.96 billion through a Hong Kong IPO, scheduled for listing on February 10th. The IPO is arranged by CICC, Guotai Junan, and Bank of Communications and has begun accepting subscriptions from retail and institutional investors.

**Lanki Technology Hong Kong IPO** Chinese chip design company Lanki Technology is proceeding with a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to raise up to approximately HKD 7 billion (USD 902 million). The offering has secured strong support from cornerstone investors, including Alibaba and JPMorgan, totaling USD 450 million. Its robust performance, with 2025 net profit expected to grow by up to 66%, highlights high market recognition of its growth potential in AI and data center chips. The company expects its shares to begin trading on the Hong Kong Exchange on February 9th.

**XianDao Intelligent Hong Kong IPO** XianDao Intelligent has applied for a Hong Kong IPO. It seeks to issue 96.3 million shares, with the top end of the price guidance interval at HKD 45.80. The shares are expected to be priced on February 9th and begin trading on February 11th.

**Energy Reports, Industry Conferences, and Other Events**

**Consensus Hong Kong 2026** The Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference is scheduled to take place from February 10th to 12th at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC).

**New York Fashion Week Begins** New York Fashion Week begins, running until February 16th.

**International Energy Week in London** International Energy Week is held in London from February 10th to 12th, bringing together global leaders to address key issues in the energy transition. The Oslo Energy Forum takes place concurrently.

**Investing in African Mining Indaba** The Investing in African Mining Indaba, the largest mining investment conference in Africa, is held in Cape Town until February 12th.

**OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report** OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release time is to be determined, usually around 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time).

**2026 Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference** The Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference is held in Kuala Lumpur until February 11th.

**Bangladesh National Election Scheduled** According to reports, the Bangladesh Election Commission announced that the national election will be held on February 12th, 2026.

**Hang Seng Indexes Company to Announce Quarterly Review Results** Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of its fourth-quarter review on February 13th.

**PBOC: 150 Billion Yuan 1-Month Treasury Cash Deposit Tender** The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct a tender for the 2026 second tranche of central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits on February 10th from 9:00 to 9:30 AM. The operation volume is 150 billion yuan, with a 1-month (28-day) term, starting on February 10th, 2026, and maturing on March 10th, 2026 (adjusted for holidays).

**Beijing Launches Car Trade-In Subsidy Program** According to reports, starting February 9th, Beijing will implement a new car trade-in subsidy scheme, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan. The official plan includes two types of subsidies: "scrap and replace" and "trade-in replace." The "scrap and replace" subsidy applies to scrapping an old vehicle and purchasing a new one. For purchasing a new energy passenger vehicle, a subsidy of 12% of the new car's sales price will be provided, capped at 20,000 yuan.

**National Highway Toll-Free Period for Spring Festival** An official from the Ministry of Transport stated that during the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, from 0:00 on February 15th to 24:00 on February 23rd, tolls will be waived for 7-seat and smaller passenger vehicles on national highways.

**Ministry of Finance to Issue RMB 14 Billion Sovereign Bonds in Hong Kong** According to relevant arrangements, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first tranche of 2026 RMB sovereign bonds in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on February 11th, with an issuance scale of 14 billion yuan. Specific issuance details will be announced on the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU).

**SK Hynix to Cancel Treasury Shares Worth USD 8.6 Billion** According to Bloomberg, SK Hynix plans to cancel treasury shares worth approximately 12.2 trillion won (about USD 8.6 billion), a move aimed at enhancing shareholder returns. The memory chip maker stated that the cancellation of about 15.3 million treasury shares will occur on February 9th.