Abstract

First BanCorp will report quarterly results on January 27, 2026, Pre-Market, and this preview distills the latest reported figures and current-quarter forecasts to frame expectations for revenue, EPS, operating profitability, and segment dynamics likely to influence the share-price reaction.

Market Forecast

Based on current-quarter projections, First BanCorp is expected to deliver revenue of USD 256.65 million, EBIT of USD 127.27 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.51, implying year-over-year growth of 25.36% for revenue, 11.18% for EBIT, and 23.42% for adjusted EPS, with margin forecasts not disclosed. The main business is positioned to see stable operating momentum as noninterest revenue and net interest income trends support the company’s near-term outlook on the back of prior-quarter profitability and expense control. Within the portfolio, Commercial and Corporate Banking stands out as a near-term opportunity given its USD 45.97 million revenue contribution last quarter, though year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

First BanCorp’s previous quarter delivered USD 217.92 million in revenue, gross margin was not disclosed, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company reached USD 101.00 million, net profit margin was 43.50%, and adjusted EPS was USD 0.63 with year-over-year growth of 40.00%. A notable highlight was an adjusted EPS outperformance versus estimates by USD 0.14, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated profitability. Main business highlights were as follows: Consumer (Retail) Banking USD 170.24 million, Commercial and Corporate Banking USD 45.97 million, U.S. Operations USD 23.52 million, Mortgage Banking USD 21.05 million, U.S. Virgin Islands Operations USD 18.86 million, and Treasury and Investments -USD 30.92 million; year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Consumer (Retail) Banking

Consumer (Retail) Banking remains the cornerstone of First BanCorp’s earnings profile, contributing USD 170.24 million in last quarter’s revenue. The forecasted company-wide revenue of USD 256.65 million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.51 suggest ongoing contribution from the consumer franchise, with operating leverage contingent on disciplined expense trends and stable credit costs. The prior quarter’s net profit margin of 43.50% underpins the resilience of the earnings base, indicating that the company’s balance of net interest income, fees, and operating cost discipline supported strong profitability even without disclosed gross margin. Sequential net profit growth of 25.38% last quarter provides a base for continued momentum; the extent to which consumer fee generation, loan utilization, and deposit mix sustain this growth will be central to this quarter’s narrative. Given the forecast EPS growth of 23.42% year over year, the consumer unit’s performance is likely to be viewed through the prism of operating efficiency and the interplay between funding costs and asset yields captured in net profit margin dynamics rather than gross margin metrics. A key point investors will track in Consumer (Retail) Banking is the balance of revenue-generating activities (including loan originations and transaction services) against credit provisioning; with last quarter’s profitability strong on a consolidated basis, steady provisioning and noninterest revenue stability would support the forecast EPS trajectory.

Commercial and Corporate Banking

Commercial and Corporate Banking contributed USD 45.97 million last quarter, forming the second-largest revenue pillar in the company’s portfolio. As the current-quarter revenue projection rises to USD 256.65 million, the commercial unit’s ability to broaden fee-based activities and maintain healthy loan utilization will be an important lever for sustaining the company’s consolidated EBIT forecast of USD 127.27 million. While year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed, the segment’s scale and consistency last quarter indicate it is well-placed to benefit from cross-sell of treasury-related services and transaction banking, supporting noninterest revenue stability. The margin profile from last quarter’s consolidated net profit margin of 43.50% implies healthy operating economics that, if maintained, can help absorb normal fluctuations in business lending demand. This quarter, attention will center on origination trends and commitment utilization across commercial clients; improved utilization often feeds through to fee and interest revenue within a single quarter, supporting the consolidated EPS forecast of USD 0.51. The unit’s contribution to company-wide EBIT, combined with the mix of shorter-tenor lending and services, positions it as a key revenue driver even if gross margin details remain undisclosed. Investors should also watch for signals on pricing discipline and credit quality within the commercial book, as those factors will shape how efficiently revenue converts into bottom-line performance in the quarter under review.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share-price reaction will hinge on how reported revenue, EBIT, and EPS compare with the consensus projections of USD 256.65 million, USD 127.27 million, and USD 0.51, respectively. A beat on adjusted EPS and evidence of stable or improving net profit margin relative to last quarter’s 43.50% would likely be viewed as confirmation of cost discipline and effective balance-sheet management; conversely, any shortfall would focus attention on the cadence of revenue growth and expense trends. Given last quarter’s sequential net profit growth of 25.38%, the sustainability of operating momentum is a principal focus; management’s commentary on credit costs, noninterest revenue drivers, and expense control will be pivotal to interpreting this quarter’s EPS print. In particular, investor scrutiny will include the translation of revenue growth into EBIT and net earnings, the trajectory of fee generation within Consumer (Retail) Banking and Commercial and Corporate Banking, and how treasury-related activities interact with income stability. A stable or improving adjusted EPS relative to the USD 0.51 projection would support a constructive near-term narrative; if EBIT broadly tracks the USD 127.27 million expectation, that alignment should reduce uncertainty around operating efficiency. Without disclosed gross margin guidance, markets will lean on net profit margin trends and management’s qualitative detail on expenses and provisioning to judge whether revenue growth is translating efficiently into shareholder earnings.

Analyst Opinions

Among the views retrieved during the specified window, formal sell-side previews and updated ratings were limited, so the prevailing stance reflected in consensus forecasts records a constructive orientation toward this quarter’s performance. The implied majority view centers on expectations for year-over-year expansion in revenue and adjusted EPS—USD 256.65 million and USD 0.51, respectively—framing near-term judgments around execution on cost control and steady profitability. The essence of this perspective is that the company’s last reported profitability, marked by a USD 101.00 million GAAP net profit attributable to the parent and a 43.50% net profit margin, sets a credible base for meeting or modestly exceeding current-quarter expectations. Market participants are likely to emphasize variance versus the forecasted EPS of USD 0.51 and EBIT of USD 127.27 million, given the prior quarter’s EPS outperformance of USD 0.14 and sequential net profit growth of 25.38%, which together signal an operating cadence that, if maintained, can support the expected year-over-year EPS growth of 23.42%. In this context, the majority view focuses on operational consistency: the relationship between consolidated revenue growth and EBIT delivery, the stability of net profit margin versus last quarter, and management’s narrative on drivers within Consumer (Retail) Banking and Commercial and Corporate Banking. The constructive stance assumes that last quarter’s expense discipline and revenue mix can extend into the current quarter, while recognizing that reported figures must validate the forecast without the benefit of granular margin guidance. The consensus-implied framework therefore prioritizes three checks at the print: whether revenue approximates USD 256.65 million, whether EBIT follows the USD 127.27 million trajectory, and whether adjusted EPS is close to USD 0.51; alignment on these points would substantiate the positive tone of expectations, whereas deviations would recalibrate views around the efficiency of revenue conversion into earnings. In a quarter where segment year-over-year metrics were not disclosed, careful attention to management’s qualitative detail will shape the analytical narrative and determine whether the constructive majority perspective remains intact after results.