Abstract

Tenaris SA will release its results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, with consensus expecting year-over-year revenue growth and analysts signaling a cautious stance ahead of the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to Tenaris SA delivering revenue of $2.93 billion (up 5.51% year over year), EBIT of $502.14 million (up 11.23% year over year), and adjusted EPS of $0.80 (up 16.86% year over year). Margin forecasts have not been formally provided, though expectations imply continued normalization from last quarter’s levels.

The main business is expected to remain anchored by core pipe sales, with the mix leaning toward high-value orders and recurring customer activity that sustains cash generation even as pricing normalizes. The most promising segment by revenue remains Pipes, which generated $2.88 billion last quarter; total company revenue increased 2.15% year over year in that period.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Tenaris SA reported revenue of $2.98 billion, a gross profit margin of 34.65%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.45 billion, a net profit margin of 14.97%, and adjusted EPS of $0.85 (up 4.94% year over year).

Quarter-on-quarter, net profit declined by 16.12%, reflecting a tougher margin mix and the timing of deliveries. Pipes contributed $2.88 billion and accounted for 96.54% of sales; total revenue advanced 2.15% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business dynamics and execution priorities

The core revenue driver remains the pipe business, which contributed $2.88 billion last quarter and 96.54% of total sales. This quarter’s performance will hinge on execution against order books and delivery schedules that support a smoother run rate than in the prior period, when net profit declined sequentially by 16.12%. With consensus modeling $2.93 billion in revenue, the implied trajectory suggests stable shipments and a pricing environment that allows unit volumes to sustain headline growth. A key operational focus is keeping conversion efficiency tight—last quarter’s 34.65% gross margin provides a high benchmark, but mix shifts can move that figure on both sides of the line. Management’s cost discipline and manufacturing throughput are likely to influence the degree to which EBIT ($502.14 million expected) and EPS ($0.80 forecast) translate from revenue growth into bottom-line improvement.

Customer diversification and project timing remain central to maintaining backlog momentum. While backlog disclosures are not included here, the revenue estimate implies that pending deliveries are sufficient to lift year-over-year performance by 5.51%. The main risk around the top line this quarter is the cadence of high-value orders within the shipping calendar; if schedules skew to later months, it can dampen quarterly margins even when annual demand is intact. Conversely, early fulfillment of premium orders tends to bolster EBIT conversion—consensus expects EBIT to expand 11.23% year over year, a stronger pace than revenue. That gap indicates expectations for an improved operating leverage profile, contingent on mix and factory utilization. The comparison to last quarter’s net margin at 14.97% sets a reference point; holding that level while delivering higher EBIT implies careful management of SG&A and cost of goods sold.

From a financial perspective, the bridge from last quarter’s $2.98 billion revenue and $0.85 adjusted EPS to this quarter’s $2.93 billion and $0.80 forecast hinges on maintaining resilience in unit output and incremental pricing discipline where applicable. Even modest improvements in production efficiency can protect gross margin in the face of mix variability. The interplay between volume stability and cost absorption will be essential for EBIT expansion to outpace revenue growth as consensus suggests. Execution against these priorities will likely be a focal point for investors evaluating how close reported results align with estimates.

Most promising business and near-term catalysts

Within the company’s portfolio, Pipes remains the most promising segment due to its scale and cash-generation potential, delivering $2.88 billion last quarter. That concentration provides leverage to any uplift in delivery sequencing and a pathway to stabilized earnings even when absolute pricing undergoes normalization. With total revenue having grown 2.15% year over year last quarter, the segment’s dominance means the company’s quarterly outcome will largely mirror the cadence of shipments and pricing in this line.

Near-term catalysts inside the main segment are driven by order fulfillment timing, the mix of higher-spec products, and operational efficiency. When premium orders are delivered earlier in the quarter, it tends to support gross margin relative to the 34.65% baseline and can translate favorably to EBIT against the $502.14 million expectation. On the cost side, maintaining streamlined manufacturing flows, minimizing waste, and optimizing labor utilization can offset any pricing softness. This combination increases the probability that EPS lands near consensus at $0.80 while preserving the balance between revenue growth and profitability.

The segment’s scale also means that even incremental gains in factory throughput or procurement savings have outsized effects on margins. Ensuring that logistics and scheduling avoid bottlenecks can suppress overhead per unit and help protect the net margin benchmark of 14.97%. If those operational levers work as intended, the quarter’s reported results could present a constructive spread between revenue growth (5.51% year over year expected) and EBIT growth (11.23% year over year expected), a sequence that investors typically view favorably.

Key factors likely to drive the stock reaction this quarter

The stock’s reaction around the print will most likely be driven by delivery against consensus on revenue ($2.93 billion), EBIT ($502.14 million), and adjusted EPS ($0.80), alongside color on margin trajectory relative to last quarter’s 34.65% gross margin and 14.97% net margin. A report that shows EBIT expanding faster than revenue—consistent with the 11.23% vs 5.51% year-over-year expectations—typically signals strong operating leverage and could be read as an indicator of solid execution, even if revenue is only modestly higher than the prior quarter. Conversely, any shortfall in EBIT conversion despite revenue landing close to targets would raise questions about product mix, cost control, or timing of project deliverables.

Management commentary around quarterly scheduling and the mix of higher-spec products will help investors interpret gross margin dynamics. If margins track close to last quarter’s levels, it suggests cost control and mix management are supporting operating performance. A notable deviation would need to be reconciled with either product mix changes or temporary factory inefficiencies; investors will parse that detail closely. EPS delivery relative to the $0.80 consensus is a particularly sensitive line item because it incorporates both operating performance and any below-the-line effects. Maintaining clean results without unexpected non-operating items tends to be viewed favorably by the market.

The sequential change in net profit—down 16.12% quarter over quarter last period—sets a near-term narrative: investors want confirmation that profitability has stabilized. If the company demonstrates that the prior sequential decline was tied to timing rather than underlying weakness, it helps anchor confidence in the current quarter estimates. Stronger EBIT conversion than expected would reinforce that message; weaker conversion would do the opposite. The share price response will therefore hinge on whether top-line growth, margin sustainability, and earnings quality all line up against the consensus framework presented here.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish opinions currently hold the majority versus bullish views (100% bearish, 0% bullish within the collected range). Piper Sandler downgraded Tenaris SA to Hold with a $41.00 price target, indicating a cautious view on near-term upside. The downgrade implies skepticism that the shares will rerate higher without clearer evidence of margin resilience and consistent EBIT conversion against consensus. In the context of estimates calling for revenue of $2.93 billion (up 5.51% year over year), EBIT of $502.14 million (up 11.23% year over year), and adjusted EPS of $0.80 (up 16.86% year over year), the stance suggests the market wants confirmation that operating leverage is indeed improving and that the sequential profit dip last quarter was transitory.

The institutional caution frames a pragmatic lens for the quarter: investors will likely demand clean execution against revenue and EPS, plus detail on margin preservation. An in-line outcome at the top line, paired with evidence of sustainable EBIT conversion, could soften bearish sentiment, while a miss on profitability would reinforce it. The focal points to watch in the release are the relationship between revenue growth and EBIT growth—where consensus expects a favorable spread—and commentary explaining any deviations from last quarter’s margin benchmarks. If management articulates how delivery timing and cost controls underpin the quarter’s profitability, it may address the core concerns underpinning the Hold rating and shape how the market recalibrates expectations for subsequent quarters.