周二盘中，江西铜业股份（00358）股价大跌5%，引发市场关注。截至发稿，该股跌幅收窄至3.91%，报30港元，成交额2.62亿港元。
消息面上，江西铜业此前发布的第三季度业绩显示，公司净利润同比增长35.2%，但毛利润环比下降11亿元。业绩报告指出，毛利下滑主要受到铜精矿冶炼加工费下降的影响。国信证券分析认为，全球铜精矿供应愈加紧张，现货加工费已降至-40美元/吨以下，而长单加工费仍维持在21美元/吨，这种"劈叉"现象可能对冶炼厂利润造成压力。
尽管如此，分析师预计江西铜业四季度的加工费压力不会显著增加。公司2025年阴极铜产量目标为237万吨，前三季度估计已完成180万吨，四季度生产压力不大。此外，公司有能力灵活调整铜精矿和冷料的使用配比，这有助于缓解加工费下降带来的影响。投资者仍需密切关注全球铜市供需格局的变化及其对公司未来业绩的潜在影响。
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