Abstract

Shake Shack will report quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with revenue and EPS expected to rise year over year while investors track throughput, cost controls, and segment mix to gauge durability of the growth trend.

Market Forecast

Based on current-quarter projections, Shake Shack’s revenue is estimated at $401.78 million, up 22.36% year over year, with adjusted EPS near $0.35, up 41.27% year over year, and EBIT projected at $18.40 million, up 66.76% year over year. Forecast disclosure does not include gross profit margin or net profit margin for the quarter. The main revenue driver remains company-operated Shacks, with licensing adding incremental contributions; the outlook emphasizes sustained demand, operational efficiency, and disciplined expansion pacing. The most promising segment is licensing, which delivered $14.57 million last quarter; total revenue grew 15.93% year over year, setting a foundation for higher-margin royalty leverage as the network expands.

Last Quarter Review

Shake Shack reported revenue of $367.41 million, up 15.93% year over year, a gross profit margin of 40.53%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $12.50 million, a net profit margin of 3.40%, and adjusted EPS of $0.36, up 44.00% year over year. A key highlight was the beat versus tracking expectations: adjusted EPS exceeded by $0.054 and revenue surpassed by $3.19 million; EBIT reached $18.50 million, up 83.08% year over year, while GAAP net profit declined quarter on quarter by 27.10%. Main business highlights show company-operated Shacks generated $352.85 million (96.04% of total), with licensing fees contributing $14.57 million; overall revenue climbed 15.93% year over year, reflecting consistent throughput execution and network growth.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Company-Operated Shacks

Company-operated Shacks remain the core engine of Shake Shack’s quarterly performance, accounting for $352.85 million last quarter and 96.04% of total revenue. The revenue estimate of $401.78 million for the current quarter implies year-over-year growth of 22.36%, with adjusted EPS growth of 41.27% and EBIT growth of 66.76% suggesting scaling benefits as the company leverages higher sales volumes against fixed costs. Margin tracking is pivotal: last quarter’s gross profit margin of 40.53% sets a high-quality baseline, and investors will evaluate whether menu mix, pricing discipline, and labor scheduling can preserve gross margin while managing commodity inputs in the quarter. Operational execution—across throughput, staffing, and supply chain—will be central to translating top-line momentum into consistent profitability, especially given last quarter’s net profit margin of 3.40% and the quarter-on-quarter decline in GAAP net profit. In this context, the interplay between traffic, average check, and promotional cadence will be watched as indicators of demand health and pricing power; stronger-than-expected comps and controlled discounting would support conversion of elevated revenue into solid margin performance.

Licensing and International Franchising

Licensing generated $14.57 million last quarter, and while it is a smaller component of total revenue, it is favored for its structural royalty economics and scalability potential. The segment’s contributions tend to be less capital intensive relative to company-operated units, allowing royalty flows to expand as partners open locations and drive throughput in their markets. Management’s January indication for full-year 2026 total revenue of $1.60 billion to $1.70 billion provides context for network expansion plans and an addressable base for future licensing gains, particularly if partners execute well on localized menu, digital channels, and targeted promotions. Investors will focus on whether licensing markets can sustain steady unit openings and stable comp dynamics, because the margin profile of royalty streams can enhance consolidated profitability even when company-operated investments are ramping; consistently increasing licensing revenue alongside robust company-operated growth creates an attractive blend of scale and margin leverage.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance into and after the report is likely to hinge on whether revenue, EPS, and EBIT land near or above the current-quarter forecasts, and how margins trend relative to last quarter’s 40.53% gross margin and 3.40% net profit margin. With revenue modeled to grow 22.36% year over year and adjusted EPS to expand 41.27% year over year, the market will parse the drivers behind the conversion of sales to earnings: labor efficiency, procurement execution, and line-level cost controls are central to sustaining margin while supporting growth. Any commentary around throughput initiatives, queue management, and digital enhancements matters because these are levers to reduce service-time bottlenecks without eroding guest experience, thereby supporting both volume and margin. Additionally, clarity on unit development pacing—site openings, ramping performance of new stores, and construction timelines—will inform the near-term trajectory of company-operated revenue and capital deployment; upside on unit productivity can offset cost inflation, whereas slower ramps could compress margin in the near term. Finally, guidance color—even if limited to qualitative markers—will frame the durability of the current growth rates; a constructive read-through on demand normalization, promotion levels, and cost environment could help reconcile the high-single to low-double-digit growth embedded in forward models for 2026, anchored by the $1.60 billion to $1.70 billion annual revenue target discussed in January.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary leans bullish. Across the collected views in the January–February window, Buy-rated opinions cluster from prominent institutions, outnumbering Hold-rated views; the ratio is tilted toward bullish when including January’s and February’s updates. Barclays reaffirmed its Buy rating on Shake Shack in January with a $110.00 price target, highlighting constructive expectations tied to operational execution and revenue growth cadence; their stance suggests confidence in demand resilience and the company’s ability to translate elevated volumes into profitability. Truist maintained a Buy rating on February 10 while trimming its price target to $144.00 from $146.00, aligning with a view that valuation should reflect stronger earnings power but also near-term normalization risks; in practice, Truist’s position remains supportive of the growth trajectory implied by the current-quarter forecasts for revenue, EPS, and EBIT. Complementing these perspectives, the latest compilation of analyst data in early February pointed to an average rating near overweight with a mean price target around $111.67, indicating that the Street continues to anchor expectations toward solid execution and steady expansion through 2026.

The bullish cohort frames the quarter’s setup around three core arguments. First, revenue visibility remains favorable, supported by the $401.78 million estimate and a 22.36% year-over-year growth assumption; stronger-than-modeled throughput or comp performance would defend higher price targets even after recent stock appreciation. Second, earnings power appears to be advancing more quickly than revenue, with adjusted EPS projected up 41.27% and EBIT up 66.76% year over year, which implies operational leverage as sales scale; this strengthens the case for valuation support if margin momentum materializes. Third, the January management indication of $1.60 billion to $1.70 billion in full-year 2026 revenue provides a roadmap that aligns with bullish models; the view is that measured unit expansion and efficiency initiatives can sustain above-market growth while gradually fortifying margins, making short-term fluctuations in net profit less concerning provided the medium-term earnings trajectory stays intact.

Barclays’ Buy stance underscores the importance of maintaining high service standards while executing on pricing and mix; they point to continued brand affinity and the ability to merchandise premium offerings without relying on heavy discounting, which supports average check and gross margin defense. Truist’s Buy rating, even with a modest target reduction, reflects a belief that structural improvements in operations and store economics will keep earnings progression intact; this is consistent with the notable year-over-year expansion modeled for EBIT and EPS in the current quarter. On balance, the majority opinion expects a top-line beat-or-meet, constructive commentary on cost management, and signals that help bridge from quarterly momentum to the $1.60 billion to $1.70 billion annual revenue path for 2026; execution against these elements is the linchpin of the bullish narrative this season.