Gold and silver prices fell last week as soaring energy prices heightened investor concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts due to resurgent inflation pressures. This led to a cooling-off in previously crowded bullish gold trades, with many investors opting to take profits. International gold prices dropped by 1.70%, while silver futures in New York declined even more sharply, falling 9.63%.

U.S. stock indices also experienced a broad decline last week. Rising military conflicts in the Middle East drove international oil prices higher, and unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data for February intensified market worries about stagflation risks. Sectors such as retail, aviation, travel and leisure, and finance saw widespread declines. The Dow Jones fell 3.01%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.02%—marking its largest weekly decline since October of last year—and the Nasdaq decreased by 1.24%.

International oil prices surged significantly amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Several international investment banks warned that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could keep oil prices elevated above $100 per barrel. Last week, New York crude prices rose 35.63%, while London Brent crude increased by 27.88%.

At the start of Asian trading on Monday, oil prices continued their strong upward trend. Factors such as ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts by major Gulf oil producers due to limited storage capacity pushed New York crude above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine military conflict in 2022. During the session, both New York and Brent crude prices briefly touched $110 per barrel.

Rising oil prices weighed on U.S. equity futures, with investors concerned that higher energy costs could dampen consumer spending and corporate investment, potentially prompting the Fed to postpone rate cuts. On the evening of the 8th, futures for all three major U.S. indices opened down more than 1.5%. Dow futures, in particular, opened lower and extended losses, at one point falling more than 2%.

This week, key U.S. monthly inflation data will be released, including February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and January's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Economists generally expect February CPI growth to remain subdued, reflecting tighter consumer spending and lower used car prices. The release of January core PCE data—closely watched by the Fed—was delayed until this week. Market observers anticipate that widespread price increases at the start of the year may lead to a rebound in the core PCE figure, adding further uncertainty to the Fed’s future monetary policy path.

Market participants will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East. Analysis from institutions such as Goldman Sachs suggests that the duration of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is a critical variable. Additional production cuts—or even shutdowns—by Gulf countries facing storage shortages are possible this week, posing significant upside risks to international oil prices.