Abstract

T-Mobile US will report fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors focused on revenue acceleration, margin resilience, and adjusted EPS trajectory as management’s guidance frames expectations for service growth, device trends, and capital allocation.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus points to total revenue of 24.17 billion, an estimated year-over-year increase of 13.43%, with adjusted EPS forecast at 2.06, down an estimated 10.10% year-over-year; EBIT is projected at 4.07 billion, down an estimated 8.21% year-over-year. The main business is expected to show stable service revenue and disciplined device sales; service remains the revenue anchor while device and other revenues offer tactical variability. The most promising segment remains service revenue at 18.24 billion last quarter as the core driver of cash generation and stability.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, T-Mobile US reported total revenue of 21.96 billion, gross profit margin of 64.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.71 billion, net profit margin of 12.36%, and adjusted EPS of 2.59, with year-over-year growth in revenue of 8.90% and adjusted EPS down by 0.77%. A notable financial highlight was stable profitability despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of 15.77%, reflecting revenue growth alongside disciplined cost controls. Main business highlights: service revenue was 18.24 billion, equipment revenue was 3.47 billion, and other revenue was 0.25 billion, supporting balanced performance across core and ancillary lines.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Service Revenue and Core Profit Centers

Service revenue remains the foundation for earnings quality and cash generation this quarter. With last quarter’s service sales at 18.24 billion, the company’s ability to grow or sustain ARPA and ARPU while protecting churn is central to margin stability. Investors will monitor incremental impacts from pricing actions, premium plan penetration, and network advantage in 5G coverage and performance. The estimated revenue increase to 24.17 billion for the current quarter implies healthy contributions from service, but adjusted EPS declining by 10.10% year-over-year suggests a mix of higher depreciation or amortization, potential promotional intensity, or timing effects in cost recognition. Operational metrics around postpaid net adds, account growth, and enterprise traction should influence performance, especially in service revenues. Management’s execution on customer retention and expansion into value-added services can offset pressure in device cycles and contribute to sustainable EBITDA trends. The service segment’s margin-rich nature supports EBIT durability even as near-term adjusted EPS is forecast to contract year-over-year, anchoring investor confidence in recurring revenue streams.

Most Promising Business: Service as the Growth and Resilience Engine

Service continues to offer the largest growth potential given its scale and stickiness, coupled with opportunities in premium tiers, bundled offerings, and enterprise mobility. Building on last quarter’s 18.24 billion service revenue, the focus is on enhancing monetization through plan optimization and increased usage. Year-over-year service growth is key to supporting total revenue expansion and offsetting volatility in equipment sales tied to handset replacement cycles. The current quarter’s top-line estimate implies favorable mix support; as service’s share remains dominant, any uplift in premium mix and low churn should support gross margin resilience. Furthermore, targeted investments in network capacity and spectrum deployment can enhance perceived quality, drive customer acquisition and retention, and support pricing power where appropriate. The balance between growth initiatives and cost discipline will determine how much of service strength translates into adjusted EPS amid forecasted declines.

Stock Price Drivers: Execution vs. Margin and EPS Trajectory

The most material factor for the stock this quarter is the tension between accelerating revenue and moderating earnings metrics, with adjusted EPS expected to decline by 10.10% year-over-year and EBIT projected down by 8.21% year-over-year. Investors will weigh whether revenue growth of 13.43% can translate into sustainable margin performance or if promotional intensity and cost timing dilute per-share earnings. Profitability and capital allocation updates, including buyback cadence and debt management, may influence valuation as the market balances near-term EPS compression against long-term cash flow generation. The reported gross margin of 64.85% last quarter sets a benchmark; maintaining margin quality while scaling service revenues will be critical for sentiment. Clear visibility on churn, postpaid account additions, and enterprise wins will help validate the revenue trajectory. If management reinforces a path to EPS stabilization through operating leverage and disciplined costs, shares can respond positively despite forecasted EPS softness.

Analyst Opinions

Most recent institutional commentary skews bullish, with the majority highlighting revenue momentum into the current quarter and confidence in service-led cash flow stability. Several well-known research desks note that T-Mobile US’s forecast implies near-term EPS headwinds but emphasize that recurring service revenue and disciplined operating execution underpin longer-term value. Analysts point to consistent delivery relative to guidance and visibility on service mix as supports for market expectations this quarter. The prevailing view is that consensus revenue growth of 13.43% can coexist with modest margin pressures, and that device cycles and competitive promotions will be managed within existing expectations. The bullish majority stresses that investors should focus on service metrics, cash generation capacity, and management’s commentary on capital allocation, which together will frame how quickly adjusted EPS may re-accelerate beyond current forecast declines. Institutions underscore that clarity on operating trends and guidance can validate the revenue-led expansion while setting realistic expectations for margin normalization over subsequent periods.