Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is hovering near a three-month low as increasing doubts emerge over whether the US and Iran can reach an agreement to fully reopen this critical Middle Eastern oil export route.

According to an analysis of data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, the five-day moving average of vessel transits stood at approximately 13 ships on Tuesday, nearing the lowest level seen since May 12. The data includes all vessel types, from cargo ships to oil tankers.

This transit volume represents a roughly 90% decline from the daily average of 130 ships recorded before the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28. However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that, with the assistance of US military forces, the seven-day moving average of oil exports by tanker through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing 9 million barrels per day. A single supertanker can carry about 2 million barrels of oil.

Wright indicated that when pipeline transport is included, the total oil exports from Gulf states average approximately 15 million barrels per day. Before the conflict, around 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were exported daily through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Many private enterprises underestimate the number of vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz because some ships are conducting covert voyages through the waterway," the Energy Secretary said in a social media post.

According to a report from Iranian state media PressTV, Iran's top national security official, Mohsen Rezaei, stated on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will not be fully opened until Washington agrees to Tehran's demands. A week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a deal to ensure free passage of ships and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached soon.

Bessent's remarks drove oil prices lower last week, but no agreement has yet been reached between the US and Iran. The two countries signed a provisional agreement on June 17 to open the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel transits surged to a five-day moving average of around 60 ships on June 26.

The agreement subsequently collapsed as Washington and Tehran began disputing shipping routes that were not clearly defined in the pact. Iran attacked tankers using a route off the coast of Oman that was under US protection. In retaliation, the Trump administration launched more than a dozen rounds of strikes against Iran and re-imposed a naval blockade.

This month, President Trump has shifted to diplomatic efforts, though it remains unclear how much progress has been made. Tuesday's transit volume is approximately 80% lower than the peak seen after the agreement was signed.