Market Analysis Online quotations show: - Gemini Cooperation: Maersk Shanghai-Rotterdam Week 42 quotes rose to $1,090/$1,820. HPL-SPOT early October prices were $935/$1,435, late October $1,235/$2,035, and early November $1,535/$2,535. HPL issued a new price hike notice, raising rates to $1,200/$2,000 after October 15. - MSC+Premier Alliance: MSC early October prices were $855/$1,415, late October rose to $1,245/$2,065. ONE early October quotes were $785/$1,235, late October $1,305/$2,035. HMM Shanghai-Rotterdam early October quotes were $968/$1,506, late October $1,268/$2,106. YML September 29-October 14 quotes were $825/$1,250. MSC issued a price hike notice for October 15-31 at $1,320/$2,200. - Ocean Alliance: CMA Shanghai-Rotterdam early October quotes were $1,010/$1,620, late October $1,310/$2,220. EMC early October prices ranged $1,400-$1,610, late October $1,355/$2,060. OOCL early October prices ranged $1,400-$1,450/FEU, first week of late October $1,300/$2,000.
Static Supply: As of October 6, 2025, 206 container ships have been delivered this year, totaling 1.6494 million TEU. Deliveries included 64 ships of 12,000-16,999 TEU (964,000 TEU) and 9 ships of 17,000+ TEU (194,840 TEU). Future deliveries: - 12,000-16,999 TEU ships: 228,000 TEU (15 ships) remaining in 2025, 808,300 TEU (55 ships) in 2026, 978,100 TEU (66 ships) in 2027, and 989,300 TEU (66 ships) in 2028. - 17,000+ TEU ships: 76,400 TEU (4 ships) remaining in 2025, 240,000 TEU (10 ships) in 2026, 793,700 TEU (37 ships) in 2027, 1.4734 million TEU (73 ships) in 2028, and 1.1945 million TEU (59 ships) in 2029. Overall, supply pressure remains high from 2025-2028, with 35+ 17,000+ TEU ships delivered annually in 2027-2029.
Dynamic Supply: China-Europe route capacity for the remaining three weeks of October averages 291,100 TEU/week (Week 42/43/44: 246,000/303,200/324,200 TEU). November averages 304,000 TEU/week (Week 45-49: 302,900/277,500/300,000/301,300/338,000 TEU). December averages 292,500 TEU/week (Week 50-53: 287,500/300,000/288,900/293,200 TEU). November has 3 blank sailings and 4 TBN (including 3 from MSC/PA alliance). December has 3 TBN.
October Contracts: October contract valuations are becoming clearer, with focus on actual late-October booking prices (capacity remains relatively high). Historically, April and October are the lowest-priced months. The October settlement price is the average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. Early October rates have dropped to around $1,400/FEU (ONE updated to $810/$1,300 for October 1-15; YML to $825/$1,250 for September 29-October 14). October 13 SCFIS is estimated near 1,000 points, with October 20 likely similar (due to delays and partial early-October pricing). Uncertainty remains around late-October price hikes—HPL-SPOT late October quotes are $600/FEU higher than early October; CMA late October quotes are $1,310/$2,220 ($600/FEU higher); Maersk Week 42 quotes rose to $1,800/FEU; MSC’s late October hike notice is $1,320/$2,200. If successful, settlement prices could reach $1,400/$1,500/$1,900/FEU (SCFIS ~1,150-1,200 points). If hikes fail, prices may settle at 1,000-1,050 points.
December Contracts: November price hike notices are expected soon. December contracts will focus on timing, as November capacity remains high. Q4 sees peak holiday demand (Halloween, Black Friday, Christmas), supporting rates as carriers prepare for annual contract negotiations. Risks include weak U.S. demand (NRF forecasts 10-20% YoY decline in Q4 U.S. imports) and potential vessel shifts from U.S. to Europe routes. December contract trading will follow: November hike announcements (mid-October), implementation tracking, December hike announcements (mid-November), and final settlement. Investors may consider light positions given recent volatility.
Geopolitical Factors: Hamas-Israel ceasefire talks continued on October 7 in Egypt. Hamas demands permanent Israeli withdrawal from Gaza (with international guarantees) and links hostage releases to full Israeli withdrawal. Discussions also covered Gaza governance, with Hamas opposing foreign troops but welcoming Arab-Palestinian coordination. A deal could reopen the Suez Canal, significantly boosting Far East-Europe capacity.
As of October 8, 2025, European route futures open interest was 64,728 lots, with daily volume of 35,056 lots. Key contract closes: EC2602 at 1,642.80, EC2604 at 1,254.20, EC2606 at 1,469.30, EC2608 at 1,608.70, EC2510 at 1,110.60, EC2512 at 1,731.90. SCFI (Shanghai-Europe) was $971/TEU on September 26; SCFIS (Shanghai-Europe) was 1,046.50 points on October 6.
Strategy: - Single position: December contracts volatile; October contracts await settlement. - Arbitrage: None currently.
Risks: - Downside: Weaker-than-expected欧美经济, sharp oil price drops, higher vessel deliveries, inadequate idling, Red Sea crisis resolution. - Upside: 欧美经济 recovery, supply chain disruptions, carrier capacity cuts, prolonged Red Sea diversions.