On Wednesday, February 19th, the analysis suggested that easing geopolitical tensions were a key factor. A breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations on Tuesday, coupled with closed-door talks between Russia and Ukraine, fostered market expectations for peace. This led to a cooling of risk-off sentiment, diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal and putting downward pressure on the price. Consequently, the trading strategy recommended focusing on support levels at $4,850 and then $4,800, with resistance levels at $4,950 and then $5,000.
Reviewing the subsequent price action, during the Asian session on Wednesday, gold broke through the $4,900 level, continuing its rebound after finding stability around $4,850. The price rose to $4,942 before encountering resistance. After the European market opened, gold fluctuated lower, dipping to $4,906, but found support above the key $4,900 level and resumed its upward move. Approaching the US market open, gold broke through the short-term resistance at $4,950, reaching $4,969 before pulling back. Following the US market open, gold retreated to the $4,950 support level, stabilized, and rebounded, setting a new daily high of $5,010 before meeting resistance. Subsequently, the price consolidated with a downward bias and is currently trading around $4,974. Overall, gold stabilized and rebounded from $4,850, reaching the target of $5,000, with its oscillatory trend continuing, which largely aligned with the earlier expectations.
A Wolfinance star analyst believes the recent sharp volatility in gold is primarily driven by fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts and changing geopolitical dynamics. Specifically, last week's strong non-farm payrolls data dampened expectations for a mid-year rate cut, pressuring gold. Subsequently, US CPI data showing cooling inflation offset the impact of the strong jobs report, leading to a recalibration of expectations for a June rate cut and supporting a gold rebound. This week, a new round of indirect US-Iran talks showing breakthrough progress and the Russia-Ukraine closed-door discussions initially cooled risk aversion, putting pressure on gold early in the week. However, subsequent US-Iran consultations in Geneva yielded only limited progress, with significant分歧 remaining and both sides preparing for worst-case scenarios. Furthermore, the two-day closed-door Russia-Ukraine talks ended without a result, failing to achieve even basic consensus. This reignited risk-off sentiment, driving gold prices higher on Wednesday. Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook remain the dominant factors for gold prices and warrant close attention.
On the daily chart, gold has experienced high volatility after its recent rebound met resistance. For support, focus on the area around $4,950, where the price faced resistance multiple times during rebounds on Tuesday and Wednesday. After breaking higher on Wednesday during the US session, gold also retested this level as support before continuing upward. The next key support is the $4,900 level, which provided a bounce after a pullback during Wednesday's Asian and European sessions. For resistance, focus on Wednesday's high of $5,010, which coincides with the daily Bollinger Band midline. A sustained break above this level could see attention shift to the key resistance area around $5,100, which has capped rallies for nearly half a month. Technical indicators show a death cross formation in the 5-day moving average, MACD, KDJ, and RSI, suggesting short-term technicals still point to a need for further adjustment.
Intraday Gold Outlook: US-Iran negotiations yielded only limited progress, and Russia-Ukraine talks ended inconclusively, leading to a renewed increase in market risk aversion. Safe-haven buying is supporting the gold rebound. The recommended trading approach is to treat the market with a range-trading mindset. Key support levels to watch are $4,950, followed by $4,900. Key resistance levels are $5,010, followed by $5,100.