Abstract

Alarm.com will report quarterly results Post Market on February 19, 2026, with this preview summarizing current consensus, company indicators from the prior quarter, and recent analyst commentary to frame expectations on revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS dynamics.

Market Forecast

Alarm.com’s current-quarter projections point to total revenue of $250.82 million, an estimated year-over-year increase of 5.64%, with adjusted EPS estimated at $0.64, up 19.91% year-over-year, and EBIT expected at $40.77 million, down 2.62% year-over-year; margin forecasts for gross and net are not disclosed in the company’s identified forecast set. The main business highlights remain anchored by subscription-driven streams: the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and licensing mix supports profitability by consolidating recurring revenue and underpins the strength observed in adjusted EPS forecasts. The most promising segment is SaaS and licensing, which generated $175.37 million last quarter; segment-level year-over-year disclosures are not provided, but the overall quarterly revenue advanced 6.61% year-over-year.

Last Quarter Review

Alarm.com delivered revenue of $256.40 million last quarter, with a gross profit margin of 65.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $35.34 million, a net profit margin of 13.78%, and adjusted EPS of $0.76, which increased 22.58% year-over-year. A notable financial highlight was the sequential improvement in net profit, rising 2.27% quarter-on-quarter, while operating cost discipline was reflected in a positive operating income base despite continued investment initiatives. Main business composition showed SaaS and licensing at $175.37 million and hardware and other at $81.03 million; the total revenue rose 6.61% year-over-year, indicating subscription resilience amid a balanced product mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Software-as-a-Service and Licensing

SaaS and licensing is the core engine of Alarm.com’s earnings profile, underpinning both revenue visibility and margin stability. Last quarter, the segment generated $175.37 million and represented roughly 68.40% of total revenue, which is consistent with a mix that favors recurring contracts and scalable software economics. This foundation contributes to the favorable adjusted EPS trajectory for the current quarter (estimated at $0.64, up 19.91% year-over-year), even as EBIT is anticipated to decline slightly year-over-year. The interplay of subscription retention, smart-home service activations, and ongoing licensing arrangements typically cushions short-term fluctuations in hardware shipments, enabling smoother gross margin outcomes than a hardware-centric model. With total revenue forecast to rise 5.64% year-over-year to $250.82 million, the recurring nature of SaaS revenue should act as a stabilizer for overall financial performance, especially when combined with disciplined pricing and partner channel breadth. Importantly, the last quarter’s gross margin of 65.85% provides a supportive baseline, and when viewed against strong adjusted EPS delivery in the prior quarter and current-quarter EPS growth projections, it suggests that the SaaS and licensing segment will continue to sustain the bottom-line profile even if operating costs remain elevated for product development and platform enhancements.

Hardware and Other

Hardware and other revenue contributed $81.03 million last quarter, approximately 31.60% of total revenue, providing an essential complement to the platform-driven recurring streams. While more sensitive to installation cycles and device refresh timing, hardware plays a critical role in broadening system footprints and enabling incremental SaaS activations as new endpoints are integrated. The forecasted EBIT contraction of 2.62% year-over-year to $40.77 million suggests that cost structures, including logistics, manufacturing cost inputs, and support costs, may continue to influence operating leverage in the near term. However, adjusted EPS growth of 19.91% year-over-year indicates that hardware-linked variability is likely being offset by improved mix and subscription yield, implying measured hardware performance that still facilitates downstream service revenue capture without derailing margin trends. Where hardware volumes normalize, they typically foster add-on services and upgrades, expanding the platform’s utility, and this dynamic could be visible in the revenue estimate of $250.82 million for the quarter. The resulting balance between device shipments and service activation supports overall revenue consistency, while the company’s last-quarter net profit margin of 13.78% reinforces that hardware participation has not undermined profitability, provided the SaaS anchoring remains intact.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Near-term stock performance is likely to be influenced by the relationship between top-line expansion and the translation of revenue into earnings, especially given the divergence between forecast EPS growth and forecast EBIT contraction. On one hand, the estimated revenue growth of 5.64% year-over-year and the prior quarter’s high gross margin indicate favorable mix, which is conducive to EPS growth; on the other, operating costs could compress EBIT on a year-over-year basis if spending remains pointed toward product development, platform scalability, and channel support. The last quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.76, up 22.58% year-over-year, coupled with the reported net profit of $35.34 million and sequential net profit improvement of 2.27%, sets an expectation baseline that investors will use to judge whether current-quarter EPS meets or surpasses the estimate of $0.64, despite a softer EBIT profile. Another driver is the stability of the subscription base evident in the large SaaS and licensing revenue contribution; subscription churn levels and upsell rates to advanced service tiers will be watched closely because these dynamics influence both gross margin consistency and earnings resilience. Finally, hardware volumes and product mix can nudge quarterly deviations: strong device sell-through improves platform entrenchment and service attach rates, but unfavorable cost trends or channel inventory adjustments could temper EBIT even when revenue holds up. In that context, maintaining traction on adjusted EPS—supported by a recurring revenue backbone and last quarter’s healthy margin metrics—will be a key yardstick for the market’s post-report reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Available institutional commentary across the reviewed window is tilted positively, with bullish views outnumbering bearish ones; Jefferies reaffirmed a Buy rating and set a price target of $68, reflecting constructive expectations around subscription-driven earnings capacity and the company’s balance between service growth and device enablement. This stance aligns with current-quarter estimates that show adjusted EPS rising 19.91% year-over-year to $0.64 and revenue advancing 5.64% year-over-year to $250.82 million, an outcome that suggests recurring service economics can sustain earnings power despite an anticipated 2.62% year-over-year decline in EBIT. Under this lens, institutional optimism hinges on the revenue mix: last quarter’s SaaS and licensing revenue of $175.37 million—about 68.40% of total—supports the argument that margin quality is not overly dependent on hardware volumes, and that subscription traction can translate into consistent EPS delivery. The prior quarter’s results reinforce these expectations: revenue reached $256.40 million, gross margin stood at 65.85%, net profit margin was 13.78%, and adjusted EPS climbed to $0.76, up 22.58% year-over-year. Sequential improvement in net profit of 2.27% further underscores an earnings path that investors find encouraging, even though operating cost allocations may be affecting year-over-year EBIT comparisons in the near term.

Jefferies’ bullish view also considers the qualitative relationship between platform depth and monetization, with recurring service layers providing visibility and resilience to earnings. The presence of a strong subscription base means that even if hardware throughput is uneven quarter-to-quarter, the platform can leverage licensing and subscription tiers to sustain adjusted EPS, which is precisely reflected in the current-quarter EPS estimate and last quarter’s robust margin indicators. Moreover, the recent reporting context for operating results—where operating expenses were elevated and operating income remained solid—suggests management has scope to balance growth investments with profitability discipline. Analysts are likely to watch whether operating efficiency improves as scale builds, thus allowing EBIT to re-accelerate without sacrificing strategic initiatives; however, the current preview shows that adjusted EPS can still exceed prior-year levels even if EBIT is temporarily softer, a dynamic that supports positive ratings.

Given these elements, the prevailing institutional stance expects a constructive print on adjusted EPS supported by recurring revenue dynamics, a modest year-over-year lift in total revenue, and margins grounded in subscription economics. This view is consistent with last quarter’s revenue composition and margin outcomes, and it anticipates that the current quarter’s mix will continue to tilt toward the SaaS and licensing layer. While hardware performance remains part of the near-term narrative, institutions with bullish opinions see it as an enabler of platform growth rather than a determinant of earnings quality, provided the subscription core remains intact. The anticipated outcome—a revenue increase of 5.64% year-over-year and an adjusted EPS gain of 19.91% year-over-year—thus serves as the central anchor for positive market expectations, shaping the posture of investors ahead of the Post Market release on February 19, 2026.