Abstract

Compass Minerals will report fiscal results on February 04, 2026 Post Market. The preview highlights a recovery in quarterly earnings quality, with forecasts calling for revenue growth, margin stabilization, and a return to positive EPS, as investors weigh progress in core operations against cost discipline and end-market demand.

Market Forecast

Consensus and the company’s most recent forecast data point to current-quarter revenue of $334.00 million, with an expected year-over-year increase of 13.61%. Forecasted EBIT is $27.00 million with an estimated year-over-year decline of 22.86%, while forecast EPS is $0.26, implying year-over-year growth of 71.11%. Guidance indicates emphasis on stabilizing unit margins; however, explicit gross profit margin or net margin projections were not provided. The main business is expected to benefit from seasonal deicing demand and price discipline, while the portfolio shift away from non-core activities continues. The most promising segment remains the Salt business with revenue scale leadership; last quarter it generated $181.60 million and is positioned for positive year-over-year growth given normal winter demand patterns.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Compass Minerals delivered revenue of $227.50 million, a gross profit margin of 16.88%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $7.20 million, a net profit margin of -3.16%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.17, with revenue up 8.96% year over year and EPS improving from the prior-year loss. The quarter’s highlight was better-than-expected top line, exceeding estimates by $4.00 million, alongside improved operating income of $12.00 million versus the forecast of $10.50 million. The Salt segment contributed $181.60 million, North America Plant Nutrition contributed $41.80 million, and Corporate and Other contributed $4.10 million; the Salt business remained the core driver supported by seasonal replenishment dynamics.

Current Quarter Outlook

Salt: Core seasonal demand and pricing underpin results

The Salt business is Compass Minerals’s revenue anchor and the primary determinant of quarterly variability. Entering the winter season, bid outcomes and contract pricing typically set a baseline, while in-quarter snowfall influences spot sales and logistics costs. With forecast revenue growth of 13.61% and an expected return to positive EPS at $0.26, the path to earnings depends on execution in mining productivity and distribution efficiency to defend gross margins near or above last quarter’s 16.88%. Any improvement in mined salt production reliability and lower per-unit freight could lift contribution margins despite fuel and labor cost pressures. Conversely, milder-than-expected winter weather would trim volume leverage and could compress profitability if fixed-cost absorption weakens.

North America Plant Nutrition: Volume mix and pricing discipline

Plant Nutrition remains the smaller portfolio piece but provides diversification through sulfate of potash and related offerings. The prior quarter revenue of $41.80 million sets a modest base into the current period, with performance contingent on agricultural demand signals, channel inventory normalization, and input cost trends. Should demand momentum in specialty crops hold and pricing remain stable, the segment could contribute incremental EBIT upside to the consolidated $27.00 million forecast. However, sensitivity to farm economics and distribution inventory levels could limit contribution if order timing skews into later quarters. Efficient production scheduling and cost control will be important for maintaining segment margins amidst mixed fertilizer market conditions.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Weather, cost execution, and cash discipline

Investors will focus on three operational levers to validate the anticipated EPS rebound. Weather intensity across core North American markets will drive salt volumes and spot opportunities relative to fixed contracts, directly impacting revenue and asset utilization. Cost execution in mining, transport, and logistics will determine whether gross margin can hold or expand from the prior quarter’s 16.88% given diesel, labor, and maintenance inflation. Cash discipline, including working-capital management during peak season, will shape free cash flow trajectory and balance-sheet optics, informing outlook commentary for the remainder of the fiscal year. Any update on portfolio streamlining and capital allocation could also influence valuation if it improves visibility on sustainable margins.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews, the balance of opinions skews cautiously constructive, with a majority leaning to the bullish side relative to near-term expectations. Commentaries point to an expected rebound to positive EPS of $0.26 on $334.00 million revenue, arguing that seasonal normalization and stable bids can offset cost pressures even as EBIT growth lags year over year. The positive camp highlights margin stabilization prospects tied to operational initiatives and disciplined bid strategies in deicing salt, while also recognizing that weather variability remains a key swing factor. Skeptics emphasize the 22.86% year-over-year decline in forecast EBIT and the sensitivity to mild winter outcomes, but they remain the minority in current discussions. Overall, the prevailing view anticipates that execution on costs and typical winter demand can support a modest beat versus internal targets, with updates on cash generation and segment mix watched closely by institutions.