Abstract

Owens-Illinois will report fiscal results on February 10, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to a sequential slowdown as glass-container volumes stay mixed and pricing eases from prior-year peaks; investors will watch revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS for confirmation of stabilization after cost pass-throughs and network optimization.

Market Forecast

- For the current quarter, Owens-Illinois is projected to deliver revenue of $1.52 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 4.82%, with an estimated EBIT of $141.02 million and an estimated EPS of $0.19, suggesting a year-over-year EPS growth of 360.20%. Margin expectations point to stabilization rather than expansion, with the company’s prior-quarter gross margin at 18.15% and net margin at 1.81% providing benchmarks for near-term comparison. - Main business outlook: Alcoholic beverages continue to anchor revenue with stable demand in beer, wine, and spirits, while non-alcoholic beverages and food/other categories reflect normalization as inventory channels right-size. - Most promising segment: Alcoholic beverages generated $0.98 billion last quarter with the largest revenue base; year-over-year growth will likely hinge on mix and pricing normalization rather than volume acceleration.

Last Quarter Review

- Owens-Illinois’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $1.65 billion, a gross profit margin of 18.15%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $30.00 million, a net profit margin of 1.81%, and adjusted EPS of $0.48, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 13.00%. - Notable financial highlight: Net profit rebounded quarter-on-quarter, with net income up materially versus the preceding period (quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 700.00%), signaling improved operational execution and cost normalization. - Main business highlight: Alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, and spirits) contributed $0.98 billion, food and other contributed $0.37 billion, and non-alcoholic beverages contributed $0.28 billion, underscoring the heavy weighting toward premium-return glass for beverage categories; year-over-year dynamics were largely shaped by pass-through pricing and volume normalization.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Glass Packaging Franchise

Owens-Illinois’s primary earnings engine remains glass packaging for alcoholic beverages, supported by long-term contracts and entrenched relationships with leading brewers, vintners, and spirits brands. The current quarter’s revenue estimate of $1.52 billion suggests a pullback from the prior-year period as pricing tailwinds unwind and customer purchasing aligns to normalized inventory positions. Mix remains pivotal: premium spirits and specialty containers tend to support margin resilience, whereas standard beer SKUs can dilute mix if volumes soften. Operating leverage is a key swing factor; the company’s recent footprint optimization and continuous improvement programs seek to offset lower fixed-cost absorption. A near-term watchpoint is furnace rebuild cadence and the timing of maintenance turnarounds, which can temporarily pressure throughput and conversion costs. With energy costs moderating from prior peaks in some regions, price-cost spread should be less volatile than last year, but the setup still implies cautious gross margin progression from the 18.15% benchmark.

Alcoholic Beverages as the Anchor and Opportunity

Alcoholic beverages contributed $0.98 billion in the last quarter, making it the segment with the largest earnings influence given both scale and typically favorable contract structures. This quarter’s outcome will hinge on beer demand trends in the Americas and Europe, spirits’ premiumization trajectory, and wine’s recovery pace following channel destocking. Pricing normalization is likely to weigh year-over-year, yet product mix within premium spirits and craft categories could support relative margin resilience. The key opportunity is in value-added formats—custom molds and specialty designs—that generally command higher pricing and steadier order books. If the company sustains disciplined capacity allocation toward higher-value SKUs, EBIT flow-through can align with the $141.02 million forecast even under modest volume headwinds. Conversely, a tilt toward lower-margin standard bottles or any unplanned outages could cap upside to EPS, which is forecast at $0.19.

Stock Price Swing Factors This Quarter

Short-term stock performance will be most sensitive to revenue trajectory versus the $1.52 billion estimate, margin cadence relative to the prior quarter’s 18.15% gross margin and 1.81% net margin, and management’s commentary on the demand pipeline into the spring selling season. Any indication of sustained recovery in beer volumes or stronger order books in spirits could support sentiment, as would confirmation that energy and raw material cost pressures are continuing to ease. Conversely, a reset to guidance, indications of weaker European demand, or evidence of delayed pass-throughs could pressure the shares. Investors will also focus on the EBIT conversion rate from revenue to the $141.02 million target and whether adjusted EPS of $0.19 can be delivered without extraordinary items; clarity on capital allocation, including deleveraging and maintenance capex around furnace rebuilds, may influence valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of views skews cautiously optimistic, emphasizing margin stabilization and disciplined pricing over aggressive volume recovery. Analysts broadly anticipate revenue near the $1.52 billion mark and look for confirmation that cost controls and network discipline can sustain EBIT performance near the $141.02 million forecast despite year-over-year revenue pressure. Several equity research desks highlight that the recent quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.48 reflects successful navigation of inflationary inputs and that the sequential path for EPS remains dependent on cost containment and mix management rather than price-led expansion. The majority view expects near-term volatility but sees a credible path to meet or modestly beat the $0.19 EPS estimate if cost curves remain favorable and production schedules avoid disruption. While a minority of voices warn that slower beer volumes and pricing rollover could cap margins, the prevailing perspective is that Owens-Illinois has adequate operational levers to defend profitability through the quarter.