As of October 19, 2025, over 80 companies in the A-share market have officially disclosed their Q3 earnings reports, while more than 140 companies have released Q3 earnings forecasts (including 18 in the electronics sector, 21 in basic chemicals, and 10 each in sectors such as power equipment, machinery, utilities, and automotive). The overall disclosure rate remains below 5% (note that forecasts are not mandatory disclosures), and among the companies that have disclosed forecasts, there is a predominance of "positive" outlooks, especially in the "increase" category.
This article aims to review the industry fundamentals for Q3 2025 based on medium-frequency data across various sectors, and to consolidate the Q3 earnings forecasts of key companies tracked by Shenwan Hongyuan's analysts in different fields for investor reference.
Earnings Forecasts by Sector for Q3 2025: Sectors expected to maintain good growth or begin recovering from the bottom in Q3 2025 include:
1) Advanced manufacturing is expected to see continuous improvement at the bottom. Sectors such as high-demand energy storage, wind power, lithium batteries, defense, rail investment-related rail transit equipment are projected to confirm orders further. Construction machinery, laser equipment, and automotive parts, which have relatively stable profitability, are also expected to perform well.
2) The TMT sector is likely to continue its high prosperity. Expectations for Q3 include sustained high growth in AI computing power, storage, power, semiconductor packaging, components, consumer electronics, PCBs, optical chips, IDC, computers, gaming, and cloud computing.
3) The pharmaceutical industry shows improvements in several sub-sectors. Q3 forecasts indicate that innovative drugs will maintain high growth, while certain equipment, CXO, and upstream sectors begin to show improvements at the bottom.
4) Non-bank financials continue to improve. In Q3, insurance and brokerage firms are expected to achieve positive profit growth, driven by investments despite high baselines.
5) The overall cycle remains at a low point, but with structural differentiation. Q3 forecasts suggest that precious metals, industrial metals, and sectors like steel, pesticides, phosphate fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, fluorochemicals, civil explosives, new chemical materials (semiconductor materials, display materials, catalytic materials, modified plastics), shipping (with high price orders), troubled airports recovering, and courier services with rising prices are expected to show relatively better performance.
6) Banks are expected to be relatively stable, while real estate continues to bottom out. Quality regional banks are projected to experience single-digit growth.
Risk warnings: 1) Currently disclosed companies do not fully represent the overall industry situation; 2) There may be discrepancies between analysts' earnings forecasts and the companies' actual performance.