Since its launch, Meta Platforms' AI agent Muse has shown strong download momentum, but a dual bottleneck in user retention and monetization capability is drawing market attention. BNP Paribas holds a cautious stance on its long-term monetization path, highlighting a common conversion challenge for consumer AI applications—from user acquisition to retention.

According to BNP Paribas, citing third-party data, Muse has accumulated over 5.6 million downloads since its September release, at one point topping the Apple App Store rankings, with initial US downloads even surpassing ChatGPT and Sora. However, analyst Nick Jones noted that while Muse's app open rate has now stabilized, it remains below that of mature apps such as Google, ChatGPT, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook, indicating the product has yet to become part of users' daily habits.

BNP Paribas maintains an "Outperform" rating on Meta with a price target of $885, but has lowered its expectations for Muse's long-term monetization capability. Jones emphasized that whether Muse can convert initial hype into sustained engagement, and how it builds a sustainable business model, remain core issues investors need to watch. Meanwhile, OpenAI this week launched a new consumer AI agent product called Dots, and competition in the consumer AI market is accelerating.

Social Ecosystem Drives Downloads, but Open Rates Reveal Retention Bottleneck

Muse's impressive early download figures largely benefited from Meta's vast social platform ecosystem.

Jones stated that unlike standalone AI apps that must build a user base from scratch, Meta can leverage the existing user reach of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook to provide Muse with a natural promotional channel while significantly lowering user acquisition costs. This distribution advantage enabled Muse's initial US downloads to exceed those of ChatGPT and Sora.

It is worth noting that OpenAI's video generation app Sora quickly went viral after launch but was subsequently integrated into ChatGPT and no longer operates as a standalone app—a precedent that suggests a clear gap between initial download heat and long-term product viability.

For Muse, the rapid accumulation of downloads has not translated into high-frequency usage.

Jones pointed out that Muse's lower open rate compared to several mainstream apps means the product is still in the early stage of cultivating user habits, and remains far from becoming a tool consumers rely on frequently in daily life. The key in the next phase will shift from driving download growth to improving user retention, usage frequency, and long-term engagement.

Short-Term Challenge to Vertical Platforms Difficult, Functional Completeness Is the Core Gap

As AI agents gradually gain capabilities such as information search, product comparison, and transaction execution, discussions have emerged about whether such products could pose a competitive threat to vertical service platforms in e-commerce, travel, and other sectors. BNP Paribas takes a cautious position on this.

Jones believes that given Muse's currently limited user penetration and its lack of direct goods or service supply, complete transaction experience, and customer service capabilities that vertical platforms possess, it is unlikely to pose a substantive threat to those platforms in the short term. Professional e-commerce or travel platforms typically provide not only information retrieval and recommendations but also complete systems for inventory, transaction processing, order management, and after-sales support—even if an AI agent can help users discover products, it may not be able to independently complete the entire transaction loop.

Whether Muse can change consumers' shopping and service usage habits in the future still depends on whether Meta can continuously improve relevant features and deepen cooperation with external merchants.

Monetization Path Unclear, Advertising May Be Long-Term Breakthrough

The commercialization path is another core reason BNP Paribas remains cautious about Muse's prospects.

Jones analyzed that Muse currently monetizes partially by charging partners small transaction fees, while also adopting a model combining free basic services with paid subscriptions—the basic version is free, and high-demand users can pay monthly for higher usage quotas.

This pricing strategy helps Meta expand user scale and boost engagement in the product's early stages rather than pursuing revenue maximization too early. But Jones emphasized that Muse's long-term monetization capability remains a significant uncertainty for investors.

BNP Paribas believes that given Meta's deep experience in digital advertising, as Muse's user engagement continues to rise, advertising could become an attractive commercialization direction in the future, gradually extending revenue sources from subscription fees and transaction commissions to advertising. However, with user habits not yet fully established, whether this business model can generate meaningful revenue still needs market validation.

OpenAI's Dots Enters, Consumer AI Competition Escalates on Multiple Fronts

The competitive landscape of the consumer AI agent market is accelerating. Jones specifically highlighted OpenAI's new product Dots launched this week, believing that how much user acceptance it gains in the future will be an important indicator of the market's competitive direction. At the same time, the market is also watching whether tech companies such as Alphabet will launch competitive similar products.

BNP Paribas judges that as more companies explore using AI to complete complex tasks, competition in the consumer AI agent market will gradually expand from model performance to multiple dimensions including product experience, user retention, service integration, and monetization capability.

For Meta, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook constitute important user distribution advantages, but whether this inherent advantage can be continuously converted into growing demand for Muse still requires more time and data to verify.