Shenwan Hongyuan has issued a research report stating that it forecasts Mobvista (01860) to achieve revenues of $2.532 billion, $3.530 billion, and $4.625 billion for 2026-2028E, representing year-on-year growth of 24%, 39%, and 31% respectively; adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach $116 million, $170 million, and $279 million. The current price corresponds to 2026-2028E PE ratios of 24x/16x/10x. With reference to the average 2027E PE of approximately 26x for comparable companies, the firm assigns a 26x PE for 2027, corresponding to a target market capitalization of approximately $4.4 billion, and initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating.
The key views from Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows:
Programmatic advertising platform continues to upgrade, Mintegral becomes core growth engine
Mobvista focuses on global mobile programmatic advertising. Its core platform Mintegral achieved revenue of $1.12 billion in 2026H1, up 24.3% year-on-year, accounting for 96.5% of the company's total revenue; gaming and non-gaming revenues were $843 million and $272 million respectively, up 27.5% and 15.5% year-on-year. As of the end of June 2026, the number of apps integrated with Mintegral Ads SDK exceeded 120,000, with daily programmatic ad requests surpassing 400 billion, and intelligent bidding products contributing over 90% of Mintegral's revenue.
AppLovin retrospective: Data closed loop plus algorithm upgrades drive IAP volume growth and profitability leap
AppLovin initially built a complete data closed loop by gradually connecting traffic, bidding, attribution, and user value feedback through its own apps, the MAX mediation platform, and the Adjust attribution tool. After launching Axon 2.0 in 2023, its ability to predict long-term user value and assess campaign returns improved significantly, driving the platform to extend from IAA toward high-value IAP advertising budgets. As algorithm efficiency and traffic monetization capabilities improved, AppLovin's advertising platform EBITDA margin continued to rise, reflecting the strong operating leverage of programmatic advertising platforms once data and algorithms form a positive cycle.
Mobvista follows AppLovin's path, extending intelligent bidding from IAA to Hybrid/IAP
Since 2023, the company has continuously upgraded Target ROAS, Target CPE, Hybrid ROAS, and IAP ROAS, gradually forming an intelligent bidding product matrix covering IAA, Hybrid, and IAP. As model optimization objectives extended from installs and events to ROI and long-term LTV, Mintegral's revenue grew 47.2% and 35.9% year-on-year in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and still grew 24.3% in 2026H1 despite a high base. The firm believes that in the medium to long term, the company is expected to achieve steady growth through a more complete product portfolio.
AI Infra upgrades expected to further improve algorithm efficiency and unlock profit elasticity
As infrastructure gradually matures, more complex models are launched, and intelligent bidding effectiveness improves, traffic acquisition and monetization efficiency are expected to further increase. The company's quarterly gross margin has risen from approximately 19% in early 2023 to approximately 22% in 2026Q2, and the adjusted net margin has also improved markedly. Subsequent revenue scale expansion is expected to translate more into profit growth.
Risk warnings
Intelligent bidding and IAP/Hybrid product iterations may underperform expectations; returns on AI Infrastructure investment may fall short of expectations; competition in the mobile advertising industry may intensify; data privacy and overseas regulatory risks.