Abstract

Dominion Resources will release its fourth-quarter results Pre-Market on February 23, 2026, and this preview consolidates recent financial data, internal quarter forecasts, and institutional commentary to outline expected revenue, margins, adjusted EPS, and the key operating themes investors should watch.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest internal-quarter forecasts, Dominion Resources’ fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be $3.65 billion, down 7.30% year over year, with EBIT at $1.03 billion, up 1.38% year over year, and adjusted EPS at $0.67, up 19.56% year over year; formal guidance for gross profit margin and net profit margin is not provided in the returned dataset. The main business outlook centers on the electric operations’ demand and pricing dynamics, where load growth, weather normalization, and cost management are the primary levers. The most promising segment remains electric power, which generated $4.28 billion last quarter, and continues to anchor overall performance and near-term execution as the company balances load growth with reliability and cost recovery actions.

Last Quarter Review

Dominion Resources reported revenue of $4.53 billion, a gross profit margin of 50.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $1.01 billion, a net profit margin of 22.22%, and adjusted EPS of $1.06, up 8.16% year over year. Net profit rose sequentially by 32.37%, supported by operating scale, cost control, and a favorable mix in the quarter. The electric power segment contributed $4.28 billion, with natural gas at $63.00 million, transportation and storage at $10.00 million, and other at $177.00 million; total revenue increased 14.87% year over year. The quarter’s profitability profile reflected steady conversion from gross margin to operating earnings, aided by disciplined spending and stable regulated frameworks, while the balance of retail, wholesale, and ancillary income supported the net margin outcome.

Current Quarter Outlook

Electric Power Operations

Electric operations are expected to anchor fourth-quarter performance, even with year-over-year revenue guidance pointing to a decline of 7.30%. The interplay between seasonal demand, customer usage patterns, and cost pass-through mechanisms will likely shape the quarter’s headline revenue and earnings trajectory. The prior quarter’s 50.21% gross margin and 22.22% net margin provide a reference point for conversion efficiency, though margins can vary quarter to quarter with changes in fuel, purchased power, and weather effects. Management’s operating discipline and mix optimization are essential to stabilizing earnings when top-line results soften; the internal forecast for adjusted EPS rising 19.56% year over year, despite lower revenue, implies continued work on expenses, recovery mechanisms, and credit items that bolster per-share outcomes. This quarter, watch for commentary on load patterns during late fall and early winter, the balance of rider mechanisms and rate structures, and the degree to which cost escalations are offset by efficiencies or regulatory constructs.

Electric operations will remain closely linked to reliability and load management priorities. Within Dominion’s footprint, recent events on the regional grid in late January highlighted how constrained energy supply can rapidly drive spot pricing higher in specific zones; although those conditions occurred after the quarter being reported, they underscore the importance of the company’s asset readiness and supply-chain resilience heading into 2026. Stable operations, procurement, and hedging strategies can mitigate volatility in input costs and help protect the margin framework even when headline revenue shifts. In the Q4 context, the expected decline in revenue relative to last year suggests either weather normalization or a lighter volume environment, but the EPS expectation points to effective execution on controllables that preserve earnings quality.

Largest Growth Potential Business: Data Center–Driven Load Within Electric Power

The electric power segment, which generated $4.28 billion last quarter, remains the largest revenue contributor and the most significant potential growth platform given the region’s heavy concentration of data centers and their around-the-clock load needs. Recent indications from the regional grid operator in late January noted sustained stress tied to energy-intensive data center demand; while those observations fall after the reporting period, they highlight structural drivers that can influence forward planning and capital allocation in the near term. Data center growth tends to translate into sustained, high-quality load, creating a foundation for future earnings visibility under regulated constructs, provided capacity additions and network constraints are managed effectively.

For the quarter being reported, the forecasted year-over-year decline in total revenue does not diminish the long-run importance of data-center-related demand; rather, it frames the near-term dynamics where weather and timing effects can temporarily overshadow volume gains. In practice, the company’s ability to align capacity procurement, interconnection, and rate structures to the evolving demand profile will be central to converting load growth into realized earnings. Investors should look for updates on capacity projects, interconnection timelines, and any incremental planning actions that reflect continued movement in data-center-heavy service territories.

Near-Term Stock Price Drivers

Near-term equity sentiment will be influenced by guidance updates, capital allocation signals, and dividend policy consistency. On January 24, 2026, the company kept its quarterly dividend at $0.6675 per share, payable on March 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026, reinforcing stability in cash returns as the company navigates the late-winter operating environment. The internal-quarter forecast mix—lower revenue year over year but higher adjusted EPS—suggests investors will scrutinize the components of earnings resilience, including the extent of cost savings, benefits from credits, and timing of rate recovery.

Operational commentary tied to weather normalization and the cost of energy inputs can further color perceptions of margin durability heading into spring. Any notes on regulatory schedules, cost recovery milestones, or infrastructure readiness to support high-intensity load centers will matter for appraisal of earnings quality beyond the reported quarter. Rating and price-target actions in January also play a role in sentiment formation, as they reflect evolving institutional expectations for execution and financial outcomes through the first half of 2026.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent rating actions within the permitted time window points to a bullish majority when contrasting buy/overweight calls versus sell calls, with no formal sell calls flagged. Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and adjusted its price target to $63 on January 21, 2026, underscoring confidence in the company’s ability to execute through near-term operational variability while sustaining medium-term earnings potential. The Barclays stance complements internal-quarter expectations where adjusted EPS is set to rise 19.56% year over year even as revenue falls 7.30%, which can be consistent with disciplined cost management, rate mechanisms, and credit items that support per-share profitability.

Barclays’ perspective aligns with the notion that electric operations form a resilient center of gravity for results, especially when supported by structural load drivers such as data centers and regulated cost recovery. From a valuation and sentiment standpoint, a maintained Overweight implies that, in the analyst’s view, the stock’s prospects into 2026 merit a premium relative to neutral expectations, conditioned on stable execution of planned capital programs and earnings conversion from the observed margin base. While other institutions made neutral adjustments to price targets in January, the absence of sell ratings in the window and the presence of a high-profile Overweight rating define a bullish majority among actionable calls.

The upcoming fourth-quarter print will give analysts fresh inputs to test their frameworks around profitability conversion in a lower revenue quarter, as well as how the company sets the stage for spring operations. Investors and analysts will likely focus on whether the operating cadence in Q4 confirms the internal forecast for EPS growth despite revenue pressure, and whether management’s commentary suggests continuity of the recent margin profile into the early months of 2026. If the quarter’s results align with the forecast mix and operating signals remain steady—supported by dividend continuity and measured capital execution—the bullish camp’s emphasis on core earnings resilience should remain the prevailing narrative.