During the Asian session on Thursday (October 8), Brent crude oil futures rose more than 1% and are currently trading above $102 per barrel. As oil prices climb, the latest developments in the US-Iran situation have become the market's focal point. US President Trump said on Wednesday that he no longer wishes to reach an agreement with Iran, following reports that the US military is preparing for a possible strike on Iran, potentially before the Middle East elections.
The US is reportedly preparing to resume large-scale military operations, which may include "massive bombing." Reports indicate that the US President and his national security team have discussed the possibility of resuming large-scale US military operations in the coming weeks. Some reports suggest that the potential renewed armed conflict could include "massive bombing" of Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets, adding that military action could affect the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. This report has intensified geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, supporting the risk premium in oil prices.
Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low, with surging gasoline and diesel prices raising concerns. Trump's approval rating has dropped to a record low amid concerns over the high cost of living driven by soaring gasoline and diesel prices. This political pressure may push Trump to adopt a tougher stance on Iran policy in order to divert domestic attention from economic problems. Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump faces competitive races in agricultural states, and record-high diesel prices are putting pressure on truck drivers and farmers, providing political motivation for a hardline approach toward Iran.
Iranian officials have rebutted Trump's claim that no one knows who is running Iran. Earlier this week, Trump said that Washington's biggest problem is that no one knows who is managing Iran in the negotiations to end the conflict. Iranian officials rejected these claims, saying "the problem is actually the exact opposite." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei pointed out "the contradictory positions and mixed signals of US officials." This mutual recrimination shows a lack of mutual trust in US-Iran negotiations, further weakening the prospects for reaching an agreement.
Middle East exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, but oil prices remain elevated. According to Kpler, Middle East exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, but crude oil prices remain high. Gulf crude exports excluding Iran, combined with exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, stand at approximately 18.5 million barrels per day, close to pre-conflict levels. Kpler's chief freight analyst said: "Normalization no longer needs to wait for an agreement," predicting "slower, more uneven normalization" as the conflict continues, with transportation recovering through operational adaptation rather than waiting for a diplomatic trigger. This data indicates that supply recovery is being achieved through operational adjustments rather than a diplomatic breakthrough, but oil prices remain high due to attacks and geopolitical risks.
In summary, Trump says he is no longer keen on reaching an agreement with Iran, and the US is reportedly preparing to resume large-scale military operations, which may include "massive bombing" of Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets. Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low, with surging gasoline and diesel prices raising concerns about the high cost of living, and a hardline stance toward Iran before the midterm elections provides political motivation. Iranian officials have rebutted Trump's claim that no one knows who is running Iran, showing a lack of mutual trust between the two sides. Middle East exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, but oil prices remain elevated, with normalization achieved through operational adaptation rather than a diplomatic trigger. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the US actually resumes military action, whether US-Iran negotiations completely break down, the sustainability of Middle East export recovery, and how oil prices react to geopolitical risks. If military action resumes, the oil price risk premium may rise significantly; if negotiations restart, oil prices may give back some of the premium. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflict and stalled diplomacy, the supply risk premium is unlikely to dissipate, and oil prices still face upward pressure in the short term. (Brent crude oil futures daily chart, source: Yihuitong) As of 12:09 Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures were reported at $102.35 per barrel.