With only two trading days remaining before the National Day holiday, the market once again faces the choice between holding stocks or cash during the break.
Historical data shows that A-share markets exhibit a certain "post-holiday effect." Over the past decade, major A-share indices have generally performed better after holidays than before them. Many institutions are optimistic about post-holiday market performance, with some securities firms stating that A-shares may continue short-term volatility trends with limited risks during the holiday period, suggesting investors can hold stocks through the break.
Notably, institutional position trends provide important reference for gauging market sentiment. According to data obtained from Private Ranking Network, over 60% of private funds tend to hold heavy or full positions during the holiday. However, nearly 6% of private funds choose light positions, believing the post-holiday market may face adjustment risks. Looking ahead, technology growth sectors remain the core theme favored by institutions.
Post-Holiday Performance of Major Indices Generally Outperforms Pre-Holiday, Over 60% of Private Funds Hold Heavy Positions
As the National Day holiday approaches, the debate over holding stocks versus cash during the break has once again become a market focus.
"Currently, A-shares may continue short-term volatility trends with limited holiday risks, allowing for stock holdings during the break," according to Huajin Securities. Historical reviews show that A-shares often rise in the short term after National Day holidays, mainly influenced by policies and external events, liquidity, fundamentals, and overseas stock market performance during the holiday period.
From historical data perspective, over the past decade, major A-share indices have generally performed better after holidays than before them from a broad-based index standpoint.
Research data from Founder Securities shows that the Wind All A Index recorded median returns of +0.94% and +2.20% respectively for 1 trading day and 5 trading days after National Day holidays. The Shanghai Composite Index showed corresponding gains of +0.72% and +1.41%. The ChiNext Index performed even more impressively, with a median return of +2.61% for the 5 trading days following holidays.
From an industry perspective, most Shenwan Level-1 industries recorded gains in the short term after holidays. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automotive, computer, home appliances, and telecommunications industries performed well on the first trading day after holidays, with median gains exceeding 1.85%. Computer, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive industries recorded median cumulative gains exceeding 3% for the 5 trading days following holidays.
Institutional attitudes also provide reference for judging current market sentiment. Data from Private Ranking Network shows that 70% of private funds are optimistic about post-holiday performance, believing the market may gradually recover after pre-holiday accumulation; nearly 10% of private funds remain cautious about post-holiday performance, considering that holiday uncertainties combined with significant short-term gains may lead to a period of volatility adjustment.
Overall, over 60% of private funds prefer heavy or full positions during holidays (positions >70%), believing external market and news disruptions during holidays are limited; 17% of private funds choose moderately heavy positions during holidays, considering individual stock opportunities more attractive than uncertainty factors during the holiday period; only less than 6% of private funds believe post-holiday markets may face adjustment risks and choose light positions during holidays.
Which Styles Will Be More Popular in Post-Holiday Markets? Technology Growth Remains the Main Theme
Industry insiders point out that "holding stocks versus cash during holidays" depends on each investor's risk preference. Since no one can predict what will happen during the holiday period, those with stronger risk preferences can appropriately increase stock positions, as historical patterns generally show "opening gains"; those with weaker risk preferences should maintain positions around half, waiting for market signals of new upward trends.
Regarding post-holiday market operating styles, survey results show that over 60% of private funds believe post-holiday markets will trend toward balance in style, with technology growth, value blue chips, and traditional industry white horse stocks rotating in performance; 23% of private funds believe post-holiday markets may continue growth styles and favor continued strength in technology growth; 14% of private funds believe post-holiday markets may gradually see "high-low switching" in style, with previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend value blue chips expected to perform better.
Huajin Securities believes that post-holiday technology growth and some core assets, along with certain cyclical industries, may perform relatively well. Currently, growth sectors including power equipment, automotive, media, and computer industries offer attractive valuation cost-performance ratios. Pre-holiday recommendations include continued bottom-fishing allocation in: first, electronics, telecommunications, mechanical equipment, non-ferrous metals, media, and computer industries with upward policy and industry trends; second, industries with potentially improving fundamentals including new energy (solid-state batteries, energy storage, wind power), innovative drugs, new consumption, food, and military industries.
Youmeili Investment General Manager He Jinlong points out that current A-share markets maintain volatility and differentiation patterns, with Shenzhen markets stronger than Shanghai markets. Today's central bank injection of 600 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repo operations provides market liquidity. Post-holiday market funding may remain loose with certain upward probability. Given that National Day post-holiday gain probability has exceeded 70% over the past decade, and insurance capital "opening gains" and household asset market entry may support fourth-quarter liquidity, positions that are too low based on historical data and current market liquidity conditions may miss certain market opportunities. Dynamic position management should be conducted according to different investor suitability principles.
In his view, choosing technology growth directions has core logic: technology industries represent new productive forces, with intensive policy and industry catalysts in AI, robotics, and semiconductor fields, along with domestic chip substitution and AI hardware demand explosions. This can be combined with some valuation recovery directions and cyclical stocks with catch-up opportunities and high dividends as steady auxiliary components. Simultaneously, caution is needed regarding varieties susceptible to external friction and those with excessive valuations and significant short-term gains facing pullback pressure.
"Due to increased market volatility, the possibility of capital high-low switching occurs from time to time. According to historical fourth-quarter performance, markets often show characteristics where leading sectors stagnate while previously lagging sectors catch up, so capital rotation from high-valuation technology stocks to low-valuation or catch-up sectors occurs regularly. Market trends spread from within technology sectors, while value sectors' low-valuation quality may also rotate under policy expectations," He Jinlong suggests balanced rotational allocation for investors. Investors also need to be cautious about post-holiday volume falling short of expectations and avoid chasing varieties with excessive gains.
Looking ahead post-holiday, Mingze Investment Fund Manager Hu Mohan points out that short-term volatility will not hinder the market's medium to long-term positive trend, with "slow bull" patterns expected to continue. Structurally, technology growth directions are expected to remain the main market theme, with AI+, humanoid robots, and high-end manufacturing fields aligned with industrial upgrade trends maintaining sustained attractiveness. Meanwhile, financial sectors and certain cyclical industries also present opportunities for valuation recovery and prosperity rebounds, with market styles becoming more balanced and expected to show rotational development across main themes.
Overall, post-holiday markets may exhibit characteristics of "overall warming and structural rotation," requiring focus on technology growth main themes while also watching for catch-up potential in low-valuation sectors.
However, multiple securities firms also remind that historical experience does not represent the future, and subsequent market performance may be affected by factors such as significant stock market volatility, industry fundamentals falling short of expectations, and unexpected policy changes.