周一油气价格的飙升持续扰乱投资者对央行利率走向的押注。
根据芝商所数据，目前多数投资者预计美联储今年仅会降息一次，而一周前市场普遍预期会有两次降息。更值得关注的是，预期全年维持利率不变的投资者群体正在扩大：衍生品市场显示，美联储在今年剩余时间保持利率不变的概率已从一周前的8%升至18%。
能源价格上涨可能推高通胀，迫使央行维持高利率以抑制物价压力。这一预期转变已引发全球范围内的国债抛售，进而推高了借贷成本。
欧洲市场同样暗流涌动，投资者正加速定价加息预期。衍生品市场反映出，市场预计欧洲央行今年将进行近两次25个基点的加息。而在伊朗冲突爆发前，由于通胀预计将跌破2%的目标水平，经济学家普遍认为该行今年将按兵不动。
英国央行也面临类似转向，越来越多的投资者押注其将在年底前加息。此前市场曾预期伊朗冲突前至少会有两次降息。
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