Earning Preview: SANDS CHINA LTD Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 11.58%, and institutional views lean positive

Earnings Agent
Feb 06

Abstract

SANDS CHINA LTD will report quarterly results on February 13, 2026 post-Market; this preview compiles the latest reported quarter’s performance and the current quarter’s revenue, margin, net income, and EPS expectations alongside recent institutional commentary.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking points to SANDS CHINA LTD recording revenue of 2.04 billion RMB for the current quarter, implying an estimated year-over-year increase of 11.58%, with forecast EBIT of 0.41 billion RMB and forecast EPS of 0.04; year-over-year growth rates are 22.03% for EBIT and 33.33% for EPS. Management and model-based projections imply continued margin normalization, though explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts are not provided; the current-quarter revenue YoY growth is expected at 11.58% with EPS up 33.33% YoY. The main business remains driven by its integrated resorts in Macao, with recovery momentum centered on premium-mass and mass segments that support steady revenue and earnings conversion. Among properties, The Venetian Macao stands as the largest revenue contributor, while The Londoner Macao is flagged as a key growth lever given ongoing mass and experiential upgrades; The Venetian Macao delivered 1.30 billion RMB last quarter and The Londoner Macao delivered 1.17 billion RMB.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, SANDS CHINA LTD reported revenue of 1.90 billion RMB, a gross profit margin of 80.21%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.21 billion RMB, a net profit margin of 11.83%, and adjusted EPS that aligned with 0.03 on a model basis, with year-over-year revenue growth of 7.35%. Gross profit efficiency remained high, reflecting favorable mix and operating leverage in mass-led recovery dynamics. Main business contributions were led by The Venetian Macao at 1.30 billion RMB and The Londoner Macao at 1.17 billion RMB, supplemented by The Parisian Macao at 0.42 billion RMB and The Plaza Macao at 0.40 billion RMB.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main integrated resort operations

SANDS CHINA LTD’s core earnings sensitivity this quarter ties to mass and premium-mass volumes across its Macao portfolio, which remain above prior-year levels based on the forecast revenue lift of 11.58% year over year to 2.04 billion RMB. The prior quarter’s gross profit margin of 80.21% sets a high base, and while incremental normalization of promotional spend may pressure margins, fixed-cost leverage from higher footfall can support EBIT growth of 22.03% to 0.41 billion RMB. Net income conversion is set to benefit from scale and mix, with forecast EPS of 0.04, up 33.33% year over year. Management’s focus on driving non-gaming revenue and optimizing mass floor yields is likely to underpin stability in operating metrics, reinforcing the mass-led recovery narrative through the peak travel and events calendar. Pricing discipline in hotel and retail, combined with higher occupancy, should help defend unit economics even as operating costs normalize.

The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao as growth anchors

Within the portfolio, The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao are set to anchor growth due to their scale, brand equity, and experiential breadth. Last quarter, The Venetian Macao generated 1.30 billion RMB, remaining the largest single-property revenue contributor, while The Londoner Macao produced 1.17 billion RMB, reflecting robust traction in mass and family-oriented offerings. For the current quarter, higher visitor volumes and event-led traffic should sustain double-digit revenue growth at the portfolio level; the properties’ broad mix across gaming, retail, and MICE provides multiple monetization channels. The Londoner Macao, in particular, continues to benefit from its refreshed attractions and targeted marketing at mass segments, supporting higher spend per visitor and improved table productivity. This mix should support EBIT expansion versus revenue growth, consistent with the 22.03% EBIT growth forecast outpacing 11.58% revenue growth.

Key near-term stock price drivers

Three factors are most likely to influence SANDS CHINA LTD’s share performance around the print. First, revenue momentum versus the 2.04 billion RMB estimate and the breadth of growth across mass and non-gaming will shape expectations for 2026 run-rate earnings; a clean beat would validate the 33.33% EPS growth forecast at 0.04 and support multiple resilience. Second, margin commentary is pivotal: with the last quarter’s gross margin at 80.21% and net margin at 11.83%, investor focus will be on whether costs tied to marketing and events constrain incremental margins or if operating leverage can lift net profitability. Third, property-level color around The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao will be a bellwether for sustainable growth, as their combined revenues of 2.47 billion RMB last quarter underpin the portfolio’s scale and diversification. Stable hold rates and disciplined comps can mitigate volatility, while any uptick in VIP volatility or regulatory cost changes would be watched carefully.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary skews constructive, with a majority of published views leaning bullish on SANDS CHINA LTD’s next print and 2026 trajectory, highlighting consistent mass-market growth and healthy property-level cash generation. Analysts point to the forecast revenue of 2.04 billion RMB and EBIT of 0.41 billion RMB as achievable, citing favorable mass mix and continued recovery in visitation; the implied 33.33% EPS growth to 0.04 is viewed as supported by operating leverage from higher occupancy and retail strength. Upside scenarios often cite better-than-expected holiday and event calendars, which can expand non-gaming revenue and smooth quarterly variability; meanwhile, downside risk discussions center on margin sensitivity to promotions and any temporary shifts in hold rates. On balance, the bullish stance remains more prevalent than bearish takes, as institutions emphasize sustained demand in Macao’s mass segments and portfolio resilience anchored by The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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