仅仅四个月前，美联储面临的一个关键问题是：是否需要继续降息以支撑当时看似摇摇欲坠的劳动力市场。如今，这个问题已不复存在。劳动力市场已经企稳，而由于关税和伊朗战争的影响，通胀正呈现上行而非下行趋势。
四月份的就业报告清晰地揭示了这种前景的转变。在决定当前坚定按兵不动的美联储未来政策走向时，焦点应完全落在通胀数据上。
四月份的招聘活动保持强劲，失业率纹丝未动，收入增长也相当稳固。这些数据均未给进一步放宽货币政策提供理由。劳动力市场为美联储提供了继续观望的“掩护”，政策辩论的下一步将转向何时以及如何将政策倾向调整至中性——这意味着未来加息和降息的可能性将旗鼓相当。而这一问题的答案，几乎完全取决于通胀数据。
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