Abstract

MGM Resorts International will report fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market. This preview compiles market forecasts, last quarter’s performance, and current-quarter drivers and risks to frame expectations on revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, alongside institutional commentary from recent months.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the fourth quarter anticipates revenue of $4.43 billion, an adjusted EPS of $0.57, and EBIT of $0.35 billion, with year-over-year growth implied at 3.56% for revenue and 86.30% for EPS; management’s gross margin and net margin outlook for the quarter are not issued publicly, but market tracking implies stable-to-slightly higher gross margin and a low single-digit net margin. The company’s main operations are expected to see steady demand in core casino and non-gaming spending, with an outlook centered on Las Vegas leisure and convention recovery and steady Macau normalization. Within its portfolio, casino operations remain the largest near-term opportunity by revenue contribution, supported by stronger table volumes and resilient slot drop; room revenue and food and beverage are projected to benefit from healthy occupancy and rate discipline.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, MGM Resorts International posted revenue of $4.25 billion, a gross profit margin of 43.42%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $0.29 billion, a net profit margin of -6.71%, and adjusted EPS of $0.24; year-over-year, revenue rose by 1.61% and adjusted EPS declined by 55.56%. A key highlight was that revenue exceeded the prior consensus by $0.02 billion despite lower profitability, reflecting solid topline resilience amid cost headwinds. By business line, casino revenue was $2.29 billion, rooms were $0.80 billion, food and beverage were $0.75 billion, and entertainment/retail/other were $0.41 billion; casino led contribution while non-gaming streams demonstrated stable share.

Current Quarter Outlook

Mainstay Casino and Integrated Resort Operations

The core casino and integrated resort franchise underpins quarterly performance as it captures both gaming and non-gaming wallet share from leisure, group, and premium mass segments. The forecasted revenue of $4.43 billion implies incremental acceleration versus the prior quarter, supported by stronger table volumes and stable slot handle in Las Vegas and stabilized mass-market activity in Macau. Margin recovery remains a central focus: gross margin last quarter printed at 43.42%, and as high-utility events and convention traffic return, mix should tilt toward higher-margin room and casino revenue, supporting a gradual lift in operating leverage. The company’s last quarter net margin of -6.71% reflected discrete cost items and normalization of operating expenses; with EBIT for the current quarter projected at $0.35 billion and EPS at $0.57, implied operating efficiency and lower non-operating drags are expected to improve bottom-line conversion.

Most Promising Segment Near Term: Casino Revenues

Casino revenue remains the largest and fastest-to-respond lever in near-term earnings power. Last quarter, casino revenue of $2.29 billion represented the single biggest share of the mix, and market tracking suggests that this quarter should capture improved visitation and time-on-device trends, aided by robust weekend demand and continued marketing discipline in slots and tables. Macau normalization adds incremental upside through premium mass and enhanced resort offerings, and if volumes track to expectations, flow-through to EBIT should be meaningful given fixed-cost absorption in resort operations. Sensitivity analysis around win rate variance is pertinent; however, the breadth of non-gaming support (rooms, food and beverage) offers a buffer to volatility, contributing to steadier revenue cadence and potential improvement in adjusted EPS toward the $0.57 consensus.

Key Stock Price Driver: Profitability Trajectory and Operating Leverage

Investors are focused on the turnaround in profitability from a net margin of -6.71% last quarter toward a positive trajectory this quarter. The current-quarter EPS estimate of $0.57 suggests substantial sequential improvement, which hinges on both revenue growth of 3.56% year over year and cost control translating into EBIT of $0.35 billion. A constructive setup for gross margin stabilization follows from mix benefits—higher occupancy supporting room rates, solid casino performance, and healthy food and beverage contribution—all of which typically convert efficiently within the integrated resort model. The durability of these gains will likely influence sentiment, as sustained EBIT expansion and reduced non-operating charges could validate a re-rating, while any shortfall on flow-through would challenge the recovery narrative.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of opinion leans positive, with a majority anticipating sequential margin improvement and upside risk to EPS if operational execution holds in Las Vegas and Macau. Multiple analysts highlight the favorable setup from stable demand and improving mix within high-margin categories, particularly rooms and casino operations, while acknowledging that expense normalization and variance in gaming hold could introduce volatility. On balance, the prevailing view expects MGM Resorts International to deliver revenue around $4.43 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.57, with the potential for EBIT to approximate $0.35 billion if cost discipline persists and event calendars remain supportive. The constructive case emphasizes a gradual path to margin repair and consistent integrated resort cash generation, arguing that the company’s scale and diversified markets provide resilience through seasonal demand shifts.