Non-ferrous metal stocks bucked the market trend and moved higher. As of press time, CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) surged 4.96% to HK$25.4; JIANGXI COPPER (00358) climbed 4.43% to HK$25.46; CHALCO (02600) gained 3.49% to HK$7.11; and CMOC (03993) rose 3.14% to HK$12.49.
Yangtze River Securities released a research report stating that the basic metals sector achieved net profit growth of 27% year-over-year in the first half of 2025. In Q2 2025, the basic metals sector recorded net profits of 37.644 billion yuan, representing a 14% year-over-year increase and 15% sequential growth. The first-half year-over-year growth benefited from the phased upward resonance of China-US manufacturing sectors and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which lifted the price center of basic metal commodities in the first half of 2025. The Q2 sequential growth was primarily driven by the gradual easing of tariff-related trading concerns, combined with strong industrial fundamentals including solar and wind power installation rushes, trade-in policy stimulus, and export front-loading, leading to commodity price recovery. Additionally, declining prices of raw materials like alumina and thermal coal improved profitability in the aluminum smelting segment.
CITIC Securities noted that US non-farm payroll data, the most critical indicator before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, performed significantly below expectations. The September 16-17 rate meeting is almost certain to announce rate cuts, with the probability of three rate cuts within the year approaching 80%. The firm pointed out that industrial metal prices are determined jointly by "financial attributes" and "commodity attributes." From a financial perspective, the Federal Reserve has already initiated a rate-cutting cycle. From a commodity standpoint, global copper and aluminum inventories remain at relatively low levels, China's economic recovery is anticipated, and coupled with the pull from the new energy sector, copper and aluminum demand growth is expected to improve.