Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report maintaining an overweight rating on aviation, oil transportation, and express delivery sectors. Regarding the aviation industry, peak summer travel demand is beginning to decline, with business travel expected to recover by mid-September. The report emphasizes that short-term demand fluctuations do not change the long-term logic, and "anti-involution" measures will provide triple benefits. Multiple regions may follow express delivery price increases, with regulatory intensity determining sustainability, and anti-involution measures will ensure healthy competition. In shipping, the US and Russia have not reached an agreement, and peace talks have limited impact on the rollback of oil transportation trade restructuring.
Guotai Haitong Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
**Aviation: Peak Summer Travel Demand Beginning to Decline, Business Travel Expected to Recover Mid-September**
Early August maintained peak summer travel volumes, with estimated passenger traffic growth exceeding 2% year-over-year, load factors improving by over 1 percentage point year-over-year, and domestic fuel-inclusive ticket prices declining year-over-year but with a smaller decline compared to July. Notably, the proportion of business travel has slightly recovered since August compared to early July. Peak travel demand is expected to begin declining in mid-August, and considering the impact of major events in early September, business travel is expected to recover by mid-September.
On August 14, the China Air Transport Association led the compilation and release of the "China Air Transport Association Aviation Passenger Transport Self-Discipline Convention," which is a concrete measure actively responding to the national comprehensive management of "involutionary" competition. China's civil aviation industry is dominated by central and state-owned enterprises, and the bank expects a series of policies to deepen governance subsequently. In the short term, excessive low pricing is expected to be reduced; in the medium term, policies may guide yield management improvements; in the long term, fleet planning will continue with low growth rates. The report emphasizes that short-term demand fluctuations do not change the long-term logic, focusing on business travel demand recovery and anti-involution measures, suggesting contrarian positioning.
**Express Delivery: Multiple Regions May Follow Price Increases, Regulatory Intensity Determines Sustainability**
Multiple regions may follow price increases, with regulatory intensity determining sustainability. In early July, the State Post Bureau emphasized a clear opposition to "involutionary" competition. Subsequently, Yiwu took the lead in raising floor prices by approximately 0.2 yuan in July; in August, multiple regions in Guangdong followed suit by raising floor prices by approximately 0.4 yuan, higher than Yiwu's increase. The bank expects multiple regions to follow with price increases subsequently.
Profitability recovery for e-commerce express delivery is expected to begin in the second half of 2025, and if price increases continue, profit elasticity and valuation recovery may be demonstrated in the future. Market concerns that price increases may impact small parcel volumes, thereby affecting price increase sustainability. The bank believes that if postal administration regulatory intensity continues and policies further guide the protection of delivery personnel's legitimate rights and interests, the scope and sustainability of future price increases are expected to be better than concerns.
"Anti-involution" measures are beneficial for alleviating competitive pressure in the short term and will continue to ensure healthy competition in the medium to long term, benefiting natural industry consolidation.
**Shipping: Oil Tanker Rates Remain Stable, Container Rates Stable with Slight Decline**
1) Oil Transportation: Recent cargo releases have concentrated on consuming regional capacity, with relatively stable rates. Last week, Middle East-China VLCC TCE maintained around $37,000. According to CCTV News, the US and Russia held talks on August 15, 2025, with both sides stating the meeting was "constructive" and "fruitful," but no agreement was reached on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Market concerns that Russia-Ukraine peace talks will lead to trade restructuring rollback and reduced oil transportation demand. Considering the EU plans to terminate Russian energy imports by 2027, the bank expects limited rollback in oil transportation trade restructuring. Oil transportation supply remains rigid, crude oil production increases benefit oil transportation demand growth, and oil transportation supply-demand is expected to continue improving.
2) Container Shipping: Traditional peak season export cargo growth lacks momentum, with Europe-America trunk line rates stable with slight declines.
**Risk Warnings:** Economic fluctuations, tariffs, geopolitical situations, oil prices and exchange rates, safety accidents, etc.