Daily Market Analysis: Gold and Crude Oil Price Trends and Friday Trading Strategy

Deep News
Sep 19

**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:**

On September 19th, gold market news analysis: During Friday's (September 19th) Asian morning session, spot gold traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $3,640.90 per ounce. On Thursday (September 18th), gold prices continued their corrective trend, hitting an intraday low of $3,627.88 per ounce and closing at $3,644.27 per ounce. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance fell short of expectations, while U.S. initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, causing the dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, prompting gold bulls to take profits and weighing on gold performance. Market participants are closely weighing whether the Fed's "risk management rate cuts" will open the door to broader easing, or if persistent inflation will dampen gold's near-term momentum. Nevertheless, analysts generally believe this pullback represents merely a technical correction, with gold's long-term bullish trend remaining intact, having gained nearly 39% year-to-date with targets pointing toward the $4,000 level.

**Gold Technical Analysis:** From a technical perspective, gold's long-term uptrend remains unchanged, maintaining an overall bullish configuration. However, there exists some short-term adjustment risk, therefore trading strategies suggest waiting for pullbacks to establish long positions at lower levels. Based on this week's price action, when gold attempted to break through the $3,707 high, it twice touched this level but failed to achieve an effective breakout, experiencing significant pullbacks, particularly after the Fed rate decision announcement. Market sentiment shifts led to gold prices rapidly falling back to $3,645. This suggests gold will struggle to reach new highs in the near term and is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern.

Technically, the daily chart shows gold closing lower from elevated levels but has not yet broken below the moving average support, indicating the trend has not completely weakened in the short term. Currently, gold exhibits signs of high-level consolidation, with key support at $3,620. A break below this level could trigger deeper corrections and downside risks. Maintaining above $3,620 preserves the possibility of continued upward movement. From the H4 timeframe, Bollinger Bands are contracting with converging moving averages, further confirming the current consolidation in the gold market. The lower Bollinger Band and 60-day moving average support near $3,635 suggests that if this level holds, the lower band may not open, preventing gold from entering a unidirectional decline. Gold's overnight rally and subsequent pullback to $3,645 further confirmed the support zone below. Overall, today's short-term trading approach should focus on buying dips with secondary emphasis on selling rallies. Key short-term resistance levels to watch are $3,655-3,665, while support levels are $3,620-3,610.

**Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**

**Crude Oil Market News Analysis:** During Friday's (Beijing time September 19th) Asian morning session, WTI crude traded near $63.22 per barrel. Oil prices declined Thursday as U.S. initial jobless claims fell last week, but with both labor supply and demand decreasing, the job market has softened, leaving traders concerned about U.S. economic prospects. While the Fed's rate cut actions have boosted demand expectations, market sentiment remains cautious due to inventory data influences. The Fed cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points Wednesday and hinted at potential continued easing through year-end to address signs of job market slowdown. Generally, lower borrowing costs help stimulate economic activity and energy consumption. Overall, the Fed's rate-cutting policy provides some support for oil prices, but unexpected increases in U.S. refined product inventories indicate downstream demand volatility. Global demand maintains moderate growth with notable regional variations. Future oil prices will continue balancing between "policy easing boosting expectations" and "inventory and supply pressures."

**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** From the daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish closes, crude oil has formed a narrow-range bottom, with prices repeatedly crossing through moving average systems, establishing a medium-term consolidation pattern. Monday's brief break below the range's lower boundary has not yet formed a sustained, forceful downward trend, suggesting crude oil's medium-term outlook remains weak consolidation. Short-term (1H) crude oil trends show high-level consolidation and pullbacks, with prices repeatedly crossing moving averages, dominated by short-term consolidation rhythm. Comparing pullback intensity with previous advances shows weaker secondary rhythm characteristics, suggesting a subjective bullish bias based on primary-secondary alternation patterns. MACD fast and slow lines have crossed below the zero axis, with bearish momentum gradually strengthening. Today's crude oil trends likely maintain some corrective space, seeking support to resume the primary upward trend. Overall, today's crude oil trading strategy should focus on buying dips with secondary emphasis on selling rallies. Key short-term resistance levels are $65.0-66.0, while support levels are $62.5-61.5.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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