On Friday, October 9, during the Asian and European trading sessions, spot gold extended its rebound, breaking through the early-week high resistance level of 4,184 and touching a fresh peak of 4,207, with gains at one point exceeding 1.6%. However, the tug-of-war between technical and fundamental factors is intensifying, and the risk of chasing the rally in the short term has risen notably.

On the fundamental side, this round of gold's rebound was mainly driven by two factors. First, Trump stated on Thursday that the U.S. and Iran are engaged in "productive consultations" and made clear there would be "no attack on Iran before the midterm elections," causing geopolitical risk premiums to ease in the short term and weighing on the dollar, which provided a breathing window for gold prices. Second, the recently released U.S. September non-farm payrolls data fell far short of expectations, with only 29,000 jobs added versus a market forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, significantly easing market concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October has risen to about 82%.

However, the medium- to long-term supportive logic has not disappeared. China's central bank increased its gold holdings by 740,000 ounces in September, marking the 23rd consecutive month of accumulation, with the scale of increase expanding further from 650,000 ounces in August to a new high for this buying cycle. The global central bank de-dollarization trend continues, and gold's allocation value as a credit hedge tool remains firmly reinforced.

On the technical side, both the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes are simultaneously showing top signals. The daily Bollinger Band middle rail area of 4,225-4,232 above constitutes key resistance, with further resistance at the 4,242 and 4,253 levels. It is worth noting that after breaking to new highs, the price remains pressured below the daily middle rail — a "new high without a breakout" pattern often signals exhaustion of bullish momentum. On the downside, support levels to watch in sequence are 4,167, 4,156, and 4,142. Given the special timing of Friday, high vigilance is needed for a rapid pullback triggered by bulls locking in profits. If 4,142 is breached, short-term correction pressure will increase significantly, with the 4,100 mark likely to be tested again.

Gold reference strategy: current real-time quote at 4,188. 1. Short on a bounce to 4,200, stop loss at 4,208, target 4,180-4,167-4,145; 2. Long on a pullback to 4,156, stop loss at 4,148, target 4,175-4,188; 3. Short in the 4,225-4,232 high zone, stop loss at 4,240, target 4,200-4,165-4,140, hold if broken below; 4. Long in the 4,145-4,135 low zone, stop loss at 4,130, target 4,175-4,200, hold if broken above.

Turning to crude oil, prices pulled back after surging overnight and have fallen below the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle rail, with further downside room remaining in the short-term cycle. On the fundamental side, Trump's conciliatory remarks squeezed out some geopolitical risk premium, but the supply side still offers support: EIA data shows U.S. commercial crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels for the week ending October 2, refinery capacity utilization rose to 92.7%, and distillate inventories remain about 12% below the five-year average. Baker Hughes data shows the U.S. oil rig count held steady at 456, with no notable increase.

On the technical side, downside support first focuses on the daily MA60 at 89.1 and the daily MA200 at the 88 mark, with stronger support in the convergence zone formed by the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower rail at 87.5 and this week's low of 86.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 1-hour SAR indicator pressure point of 91.7 and the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail of 93.2. A breakout above would likely extend gains to test the 95 resistance level. Currently, the daily Bollinger Band lower rail is moving upward again, and the daily SAR indicator is diverging upward, suggesting that after the pullback and repair, prices are unlikely to break below this week's low and may gather strength for another push higher.

Crude oil reference strategy: current real-time quote at 90.3. 1. Long on a pullback to 89.1, add positions at 88.1 and 87.5 respectively, stop loss at 86.6, target 91.3-93.2-95; 2. Short in the 92.7-93.1 zone, stop loss at 93.8, target 91.3-90.1-89.2.