On January 3, US military forces arrested Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, marking a shift in US actions from economic sanctions to directly promoting regime change, escalating tensions to an unprecedented level. On the first trading day after the New Year holiday, WTI and Brent crude futures did not rise due to the escalation of geopolitical risks but instead fell by nearly 1%, while the main domestic SC contract dropped by close to 3.4%. In contrast, asphalt futures showed a significant gap-up opening and high volatility, with the main contract once rising above 3,200 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum gain of 6.3%. Although it later retreated somewhat, it still closed with a nearly 4% increase.

Today, domestic futures for BU and SC exhibited divergent "seesaw" trends. We previously noted that the US-Venezuela conflict provides limited geopolitical premium support for crude oil and is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in oil prices. Historically, the sustained impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices depends on whether they cause large-scale, long-term, and substantial supply disruptions. According to EIA data, Venezuela's oil production in 2025 is approximately 970,000 to 1.04 million barrels per day, accounting for only 0.94% to 0.96% of global supply. Even if supply is disrupted, it is difficult to drive a long-term rise in oil prices. Furthermore, the current crude oil market is in a phase of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. Based on balance sheet projections from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, the global crude oil market still faces significant inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter of 2026. Therefore, the US-Venezuela situation is unlikely to provide sustained fundamental support for oil prices. Instead, it is noteworthy that the US action aims to quickly achieve regime change and gain control over Venezuela's oil resources. Once subsequent sanctions are relaxed and foreign investment re-enters the country's oil infrastructure, Venezuela's oil production and exports may even increase. Overall, oil prices will continue to be dominated by a loose supply-demand balance, maintaining a downward trend.

Against the backdrop of falling crude oil prices, asphalt became the strongest performer among oil futures today. The core driver behind BU's counter-trend rise stems from the US military action against Venezuela on January 3, which has essentially paralyzed the country's oil exports, intensifying market concerns about a shortage of asphalt feedstock supply. Venezuela's heavy crude oil has a high asphalt yield of up to 60%, and due to its low price, it has long been favored by Chinese teapot refineries. As the primary buyer of Venezuelan crude, China's teapot refineries imported approximately 393,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude in 2025, while Venezuela's crude exports during the same period were about 780,000 barrels per day. The proportion of imports by domestic teapot refineries to Venezuela's exports mostly remained between 50% and 70% in most months.

In December 2025, the US successively seized sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, leading to a sharp reduction in Venezuelan crude shipments to China. According to Kpler data, the volume of Venezuelan crude arriving at Chinese ports in January was still sufficient, but due to the situation in December, only two vessels carrying Venezuelan crude were dispatched to China. Considering the shipping cycle, the escalation of geopolitical conflict will have a greater impact on the supply of asphalt feedstock for domestic refineries in February and beyond. If the supply of Merey crude to Asia tightens, teapot refineries may turn to Iranian heavy crude or Canadian TMX crude as substitutes, but these crude types are priced higher. Data shows that the discount for TMX crude relative to Brent is only -$5 per barrel, significantly lower than the -$13 per barrel discount for Merey crude. In summary, the tightening supply of Merey crude, combined with rising costs of alternative feedstocks, has jointly pushed up expectations for asphalt feedstock costs, providing a boost to asphalt prices.