欧洲股市小幅上扬，科技股领涨，英伟达宣布恢复向中国出口AI芯片，华尔街期货微升。分析师发出预警，历史可能在2025年重演，尤其关注8月初的市场动荡风险。
德意志银行宏观策略师Henry Allen指出，2024年7月底至8月初曾出现全年最大波动，今年同一时期风险更甚。8月1日的新关税截止日期、即将公布的非农就业报告，加上长期债券收益率攀升，构成“严重问题”。市场尚未充分定价更高关税，结果可能最后时刻揭晓，引发剧烈反应和波动加剧。
Allen强调，若关税上调叠加疲软的美国就业数据，投资者将重新评估经济前景，市场或面临巨大挑战。长期债券收益率在美、德、法等国已处高位，当前美国30年期收益率达4.95%，远高于去年同期的4.52%；德法两国收益率更是2011年欧元危机以来最高。小幅跳升即可能触发财政政策担忧。
此外，该周还将迎来美联储政策会议、美国财政部季度借款公告及经济增长数据。Allen总结，市场低估关税截止风险，月末事件密集、流动性稀薄，恰逢危机高发期。
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