CMSC released a research report stating that JD-SW (09618) is expected to achieve total revenue growth of +12.6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.2 billion yuan. Q3 retail revenue is expected to maintain double-digit growth of around 10%, with both daily necessities categories and third-party platform (3P) revenue maintaining strong momentum. Retail operating margin performance is expected to exceed expectations. The firm remains optimistic about the company's growth resilience under its self-operated business moat and profit improvement potential driven by strong supply chain bargaining power, maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating.

CMSC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Q3 Group and Retail Revenue Growth Expected to Meet Expectations, Daily Necessities and 3P Revenue Growth Remains Stable

Q3 2025 group total revenue is expected to grow +12.6% year-over-year, with JD.com retail revenue growing +10% year-over-year, basically in line with market expectations. By category, electronics sales growth is expected to gradually slow down in Q3 due to the high base effect from government subsidies that began in late August and the strong boost to computer sales from the game "Black Myth: Wukong" in August last year creating a high comparison base. Electronics category growth is expected to face pressure going forward driven by high base effects and tightening government subsidy quotas. Daily necessities revenue is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 supported by healthy growth momentum in supermarket goods, fashion & home, and health categories. Third-party merchant advertising and commission revenue is also expected to maintain the rapid growth momentum seen in Q2.

Q3 Retail Operating Profit and Group Profit Performance Expected to Exceed Expectations

From a profitability perspective, JD.com's retail operating margin is expected to improve by approximately 0.3 percentage points year-over-year to around 5.5% in Q3, mainly driven by gross profit margin improvements from supply chain optimization and increased revenue share from higher-margin advertising and commission businesses growing faster. Q3 group Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be around 4.2 billion yuan, performing better than previous expectations.

JD.com Double 11 Festival Launches Early, Focus on Promotional Performance

JD.com's Double 11 shopping festival began selling spot goods at 8 PM on October 9, earlier than last year. This year, JD.com has significantly simplified its promotional mechanics, offering users low-priced quality goods through official direct discounts and supplementary coupon packages. Additionally, channels such as "Dark Night High Winds," flash sales, "Hundred Supplements," and PLUS membership provide further discounts during the promotional period. Focus should be on JD.com's Double 11 promotional performance. Regarding food delivery services, attention should be paid to the joint marketing investment and performance between e-commerce and food delivery during the promotional period.